2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
December 02, 2022
Recommended Picks: NCAAF Conference Title Weekend
WORLD CUP
SATURDAY
NETHERLANDS-USA OVER 2 ½ +140 (down to +100)
ARGENTINA -500 AUSTRALIA (up to -800)
SUNDAY
FRANCE -330 POLAND (up to -600)
ENGLAND -195 SENEGAL (up to -300)
MONDAY
CROATIA +110 JAPAN (up to -200)
BRAZIL -410 SOUTH KOREA (up to -800)
TUESDAY
SPAIN -170 MOROCCO (up to -400)
PORTUGAL -115 SWITZERLAND (up to -200)
NCAAF
FRIDAY
USC-UTAH OVER 66 (up to 70)
SATURDAY
KSTATE +2 TCU (down to +1)
UCF +150 TULANE (down to +125)
GEORGIA-LSU UNDER 52 ½ (down to 51)
PURDUE-MICHIGAN UNDER 52 (down to 51)
CLEMSON -7 ½ UNC (up to 9)
NFL
SUNDAY
1 PM
TITANS-EAGLES OVER 44 (up to 45)
JAGS-LIONS UNDER 51 (down to 50)
TEXANS +7 BROWNS (down to 6)
VIKINGS -2 ½ JETS (up to 3)
FALCONS +1 STEELERS (up to -1)
BRONCOS +9 ½ RAVENS (down to 7)
GIANTS +2 ½ COMMANDERS (up to -1)
4 PM
RAMS +7 SEAHAWKS (down to +4)
BENGALS +2 ½ CHIEFS (down to +1)
8 PM
COLTS +10 ½ COWBOYS (down to +10)
MONDAY
SAINTS-BUCS OVER 40 ½ (up to 41)
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
