2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 11, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Tuesday April 11
NBA Play in games
Atlanta Hawks (41-41) 8th in the Eastern Conference Versus Miami Heat (44-38) 7th in East Atlanta is a 5.5 point dog. Vegas has a total of 228. The Hawks have no injuries to report at this time. Miami Heat’s Lowry and Strus are game time decisions. Jovic is out.
(42-40) Minnesota Timberwolves 8th in the West versus (43-39) LA Lakers 7th in the West.
The Wolves are an 8.5 point dog. Vegas has a total of 232.5 . Minnesota’s Towns and Nowell are game time decisions; Gobert, Reid and McDaniels’ are out. LA’s James, Davis, and Russell are Game time Decisions.
Not Official Recommended picks.
Mike's NBA pick of the day: Atlanta will cover the spread...
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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
