2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 14, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Friday April 14
Play in 8th seed games
Chicago Bullls (40-42) 9th in the East Versus Miami Heat (44-38) 8th in the East.
Chicago is a 5.5 point dog. Vegas has the total at 208.5.
Miami’s Lowry,knee; Butler,personal; and Vincent,back,are game time decisions. Jovic,back, is out.
Vegas early action shows 74% lean toward Chicago and 80% favor the over.
Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42) 9th in the West Versus Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40) 8th in the West. The Thunder are 5.5 point dog. Vegas has the total at 228.5.
OKC’s Pokusevski is out, knee. The Wolves’ Golbert, back; Towns, calf; Nowell, knee are all game time decisions. Reid, wrist; McDaniels, hand are out.
Vegas early action shows 71% lean toward OKC and 62% favor the over.
Not official recommended picks.
Mike’s NBA free pick of the day: Bulls will cover the spread.
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
