2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 17, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Monday April 17
Play offs
Brooklyn Nets (45-37) 6th in the East Versus Philadelphia 76ers (54-28) 3rd in the East
Nets are a 10 point dog. Vegas has the total 213. No injuries to report. Vegas action shows 57% lean toward 76ers and 64% favor the over. 76ers lead the series 1-0.
Golden State Warriors (44-38) 6th in the West Versus Sacramento Kings (48-34) 3rd in the West. Golden State is a 2 point favorite with a total of 240.5. Golden States’ Iguodala, wrist, is out. Ty Jerome, illness, is a game time decision. Jordan Poole, ankle, is a game time decision.
Sacramento’s Dellavedova, finger, is out. Vegas action shows 84% lean toward Golden State and 73% favor the under. Kings lead the series 1-0.
Not official recommended picks.
Smokehouse Mike’s free picks of the day:
MLB Tampa Bay Moneyline to beat Cincinnati.
Chicago Cubs and Oakland A’s over 8.
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
