Will be doing these weekly as we enter the fall. Also adding macro predictions on the economic and housing markets you can utilize accordingly. Still more profits for this month so far, fulfilling a very profitable 2023 for political betting.
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Q4 PROFITS REPORT
Time Frame: 8/1/23 to 12/4/23
Year to Date: +33 units
Bankroll: 50 units
Profit Rate: 65%
Annualized Profit Rate: 195%
S&P Since 8/1/23: -1%
Better than Market: +54%
NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW December 6th
LIU travels to #15 Miami as a 28.5 point dog with a total 154.5
Early public action shows 63% lean toward LIU and 56% favor the under.
SC travels to #24 Clemson as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 139.
SC’s Dibba is a game time decision. Hemenway is out. Clark is game time decision.
Early public action shows 77% lean toward SC and 56% favor the over.
#12 TX travels to #8 Marquette as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 150.5
TX’s Disu is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 76% lean toward TX and 74 % favor the over.
Rice travels to #3 Houston as a 27.5 point dog with a total of 140.5
Rice’s Selden,Shetfield are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 92% lean toward Houston and 92% favor the over.
DePaul travels to #21 TX A&M as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 146.5 DePaul’s Murphy is a game time decision. TXAM’s Radford,Marble are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 94% lean toward TX AM and the over/under is 50/50
Denver travels to #13 CO ST as a 21 point dog with ...
A deep dive, with talent-based power ratings, yard-per-play performance based power ratings, and third party independent database game simulation power ratings, and inidivudal game write-up of each title game. A few sites I utilize often:
https://collegefootballdata.com/teams
https://www.pff.com/greenline/ncaa
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://collegefootballnerds.com
News & Notes
· Politics: RFK & Cornel West announce independent bids. Assuming Libertarians and Greens nominate their own, many states will see 4 major third party/independent bids on the ticket. Historically, independent/3rd party polling proves highly variable, with their primary impact on the subject of the popular debate, vote parking by voters unhappy with both major parties and nominees likely to shift to a candidate who can win in close states by election day, and voter participation rates in general. Traditionally, due to the strength and intensity of his voter base, third party success helps Trump more than Biden.
· Economy: Global red flags continue to fly higher, including collateral concerns in the repo market for funding of the EuroDollar system, unaffordable housing markets, yield curve inversion steepening, China internal economic woes, Europe’s continuing recession, rising small business bankruptcies, depressing consumer survey data, poor wage performance for blue-collar workers, strikes at major manufacturers, rising oil prices, credit card defaults spiking, credit access shrinking, student loan payments coming back, inflated prices of core goods, and deflationary credit environment.
· Geopolitics: Ukraine’s offensive fails (as that prediction on their failed breakthrough to the Sea of Azov will soon pay off for those that invested accordingly), war flares back up in Gaza between Hamas and Israel that threatens to extend to the rest of the globe, Argentina experiences its own political revolution as a libertarian populist may win the fall presidential election, the populist AfD breaks through in Germany to the degree the German powers that be contemplate banning it, and global populist rise continues.
Betting Portfolio: Returns & Recommendations
Nice, if crazy finish, to the week. Will do a podcast with a deeper breakdown in the Pick Audit Podcast breaking down each pick from last week, to be released either Tuesday or Wednesday.
ALL FOOTBALL 2023 PROFIT REPORT
YEAR TO DATE: 16% NET
EXPECTED VALUE: 60% NET
RISKED FROM BANKROLL: 195%
ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: 187%
EUROPEAN FOOTBALL PROFITS REPORT
NET YEAR TO DATE: 11%
EXPECTED VALUE FROM EXPECTED GOALS: 60% NET
BANKROLL RISKED: 52%
ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: 132%
NCAAF PROFITS REPORT
NET YEAR TO DATE: 12%
EXPECTED VALUE FROM EXPECTED POINTS FROM YARDS PER PLAY: 12% NET
BANKROLL RISKED: 90%
ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: 144%
NFL PROFITS REPORT
YEAR TO DATE: -1%
EXPECTED VALUE FROM EXPECTED POINTS FROM YARDS PER PLAY: 42% NET
RISKED FROM BANKROLL: 48%
ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: -12%
