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Barnes Betting Report: All Football, 2023 Season, Report 1
September 12, 2023
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Nice, if crazy finish, to the week. Will do a podcast with a deeper breakdown in the Pick Audit Podcast breaking down each pick from last week, to be released either Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

ALL FOOTBALL 2023 PROFIT REPORT

YEAR TO DATE: 16% NET

EXPECTED VALUE: 60% NET 

RISKED FROM BANKROLL: 195%

ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: 187%

 

EUROPEAN FOOTBALL PROFITS REPORT       

NET YEAR TO DATE: 11%

EXPECTED VALUE FROM EXPECTED GOALS: 60% NET 

BANKROLL RISKED: 52%

ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: 132%

 

NCAAF PROFITS REPORT                    

NET YEAR TO DATE: 12%

EXPECTED VALUE FROM EXPECTED POINTS FROM YARDS PER PLAY: 12% NET 

BANKROLL RISKED: 90%

ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: 144%

 

NFL PROFITS REPORT             

YEAR TO DATE: -1%

EXPECTED VALUE FROM EXPECTED POINTS FROM YARDS PER PLAY: 42% NET 

RISKED FROM BANKROLL: 48%

ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN: -12%

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Politics, October 18, 2025

The attached spreadsheet lists current open positions. If you have not yet bought in to a particular prior position, then it will say BUY/HOLD, with the HOLD for those who have already bought into the position. The recommended % for each position is 1% of the recommended separate POLITICS bankroll. The NEW positions to SELL or BUY are listed below:

SELL
Shutdown Longer than 20 Days (at 99% already)
Virginia AG Democrat

BUY
1% Fed Cut >25bps in October at 4% (ok to 10%)
1% Virginia Attorney General Republican YES 68%
1% Virginia Governor Spanberger Margin 4-5.99 YES

POLITICS_-_Sheet1.pdf

Is it a mistake to mention the potential CFTC violations etc. in the Comey market, as it may be interpreted as a threat by Kalshi and make them less willing to abide by the terms? Theres some heated debate going on in the comments

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OFFICIAL PICKS: SPORTSPICKS, WEEK 16, 2024 -- Tuesday, December 10, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer. 

 

 

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Week of December 3, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 

 

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OFFICIAL SPORTSPICKS: Turkey Week, 2024

Note: 2% of bankroll max recommended on American football unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on soccer onless otherwise noted. 

 

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