2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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YouTube has perfected NFL Sunday Ticket.
Redzone + 3 other games all live and easy to switch from game to game for sound.
This is what I picture heaven being like 😍
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Association Football Betting - My Personal Refinements
This post is motivated by a few considerations lately that I'd like to draw into one post. To an extent, I will be repeating some of what I posted earlier in the season about expected value and synthetic spreads. I would however like to bring together some aspects of the long shot strategy in the official picks with the edge on draws that I observed last year as well the new spread options available on Polymarket (and potentially Kalshi soon) and of course the moneyline no options. Hopefully these tweaks will help to extract a little extra value out of the football betting market.
The underlying methodology I am using in this post is expected value analysis, whereby to assess the edge on a bet, we estimate the win lose and draw probabilities convert their market odds to break even probabilities (or we do the inverse, we convert our probability estimates into fair value odds). In effect, we divide one by the other and multiply by our stake size...
