2% max recommended on football unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on soccer onless otherwise noted.
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Optimising Value on Spreads and Totals
Tonight's post is motivated by the ongoing questions about the good to ranges in the official picks. Not only are there questions about interpreting the good to ranges on moneyline, but there are questions about good to ranges on spreads that even some of the regulars here have. In order to estimate the edge, we must use probability theory to determine the expectation value of a bet given certain odds and then compare said edge with the other options available. For moneyline bets, this simply ends up being odds in decimal format divided by the good to odds (the reciprocal of the latter term is the implied probability of given odds, that is to say, the probability the underlying outcome would require to break even over a large number of iterations), then minus one. For spreads and totals on the other hand, this is more complicated because the lines and totals themselves move. I'll delve into why that is and how we can get the best value for money with our...
