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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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May 21, 2025
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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Virginia AG Race
As some may have seen, a trio of late GOP-leaning pollsters found Jones tied or with a slight lead, after media polls with a big Democratic bias uniformly showed a major lead for the GOP candidate. Does this change my mind? Nope. Here's why below.
First, all three pollsters are really just average -- Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, and Quantus -- while the 4th, Emerson, has had a slight Democratic lean. I trust none of them in the way I trust Baris.
Second, a sneak peak within their numbers shows the Jones surge is entirely assuming low propensity Democrats -- minority voters & very young voters -- will flood the polls. I see no evidence of that in the early voting data and remain suspect of it. Even these polls showing a close race for AG have a massive GOP lead for AG amongst the high propensity voter groups.
Third, even these polls show the Democratic AG with a very low approval rating, and a very high risk voters just leave that part of the ballot blank, as long time Virginia ...
