A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

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My Adjustments for MLS Picks This Season

Recently I posted a review of the official picks for European football and the adjustments I would make to maximise their profitability. I did not include MLS picks in that post for two reasons. One was that I've never watched MLS so I can't speak to it with the same intuition I would on any of the European leagues. The other was that the dynamics in MLS are very different to those in European football, based on what Robert said in the livestreams and also based on the statistical data I was seeing in the picks.

To summarise my findings from European football, I found that when you take every official pick that was a pick'em (or listed on bookmakers between +1/4 and -1/4 spread) and took moneyline draw, every league become more profitable. Any leagues that were operating at a loss became profitable, provided you were line shopping sensibly. This was because a pick'em has no direct way to benefit from an edge on the draw, so when you start taking the...