2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
NFRI/YRFI - still opportunities today as the all star pitchers are just beginning to get worked back into their team rotations.
Most promising and at 0.5% units:
NYY/ATL YRFI - the only one where the odds are slightly worse than my preferred -120, at -125 on DK but worth it because of the strength of hitting up against remarkably weak starting pitching for these two teams. A gift from the All Star gods.
MIL/LAD NRFI - the strong combined WHIP of 2.1 with a sub 5 ERA should be enough to control some of the better hitting in the 1st inning among this group of opportunities. Found at -108 on FD.
HOU/SEA YRFI - combined hitting equivalent to MIL/LAD, but going against ERA>10 and WHIP>3.2 in this game. Found at -102 on FD.
0.25% Recommendations:
KCR/MIA YRFI @ -110 - at the edge of my risk tolerance as pitching is just over the line for Yes against decent, although not elite, batting.
DET/TEX YRFI @ 102 - with ERA>10 and WHIP>2.8, this was nearly a 0.5% recommendation. Hitting too weak for me to go that far in the bag on this one.
For the those who eat risk for breakfast:
MIN/COL YRFI - ERA>11.5, WHIP>3.35, the worst of today's slate. Weak batting and my best odds at -155 kept it off my ticket.
SDP/WAS YRFI - ERA>11.6, WHIP>3 with reasonable batting. However, Darvish/SDP has only 8 IP this year and significantly better career stats. No confidence in which Darvish will show up today kept this off my ticket. SDP YRFI as a standalone did not look compelling to me.
Report from yesterday:
2-1 straight up on recommendations, slightly better than +0.25% when factoring in the odds recommendations overall. Getting better at that part of prediction.
1-1 if you chose to venture into the higher risk opportunities.
Enjoy, as I expect there to be far less bogey's on my radar by Monday at the latest.
1% max recommended. I generally don't personally place these picks b/c of how they tie up bankroll, but Kalshi does afford the option of using it like an exchange allowing the option of betting in and out of it and I know some folks enjoy the futures markets anyway.
SUPER BOWL
SF +2000 (ok to +1500)
CIN +2000 (ok to +1500)
TB +2800 (ok to +1500)
LAC +2800 (ok to +1500)
PIT +3500 (ok to +1500)
HOU +3500 (ok to +1500)
DAL +5000 (ok to +1500)
ARI +6000 (ok to +1500)
MIA +8000 (ok to +1500)
JAX +8000 (ok to +1500)
NYG +20000 (ok to +1500)
PLAYOFFS
ARI +140 (ok to -150)
CIN -140 (ok to -150)
DAL +200 (ok to -150)
HOU -110 (ok to -150)
JAX +200 (ok to -150)
LV +350 (ok to -150)
LAC -110 (ok to -150)
MIA +230 (ok to -150)
NYG +900 (ok to -150)
PIT +130 (ok to -150)
MISS PLAYOFFS
DEN +115 (ok to -150)
DET +155 (ok to -150)
GB +110 (ok to -150)
LAR +130 (ok to -150)
MN -110 (ok to -150)
NE -140 (ok to -150)
WASH +130 (ok to -150)
WIN TOTALS
ARI OVER 8.5 -115 (ok to -150)
ATL UNDER 7.5 +115 (ok to -150)
BAL UNDER 11.5 ...
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