OFFICIAL PICKS: NFL FUTURES, 2025

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

July 20, 2025

OFFICIAL PICKS: NFL FUTURES, 2025

1% max recommended. I generally don't personally place these picks b/c of how they tie up bankroll, but Kalshi does afford the option of using it like an exchange allowing the option of betting in and out of it and I know some folks enjoy the futures markets anyway.

SUPER BOWL
SF +2000 (ok to +1500)
CIN +2000 (ok to +1500)
TB +2800 (ok to +1500)
LAC +2800 (ok to +1500)
PIT +3500 (ok to +1500)
HOU +3500 (ok to +1500)
DAL +5000 (ok to +1500)
ARI +6000 (ok to +1500)
MIA +8000 (ok to +1500)
JAX +8000 (ok to +1500)
NYG +20000 (ok to +1500)

PLAYOFFS
ARI +140 (ok to -150)
CIN -140 (ok to -150)
DAL +200 (ok to -150)
HOU -110 (ok to -150)
JAX +200 (ok to -150)
LV +350 (ok to -150)
LAC -110 (ok to -150)
MIA +230 (ok to -150)
NYG +900 (ok to -150)
PIT +130 (ok to -150)

MISS PLAYOFFS
DEN +115 (ok to -150)
DET +155 (ok to -150)
GB +110 (ok to -150)
LAR +130 (ok to -150)
MN -110 (ok to -150)
NE -140 (ok to -150)
WASH +130 (ok to -150)

WIN TOTALS
ARI OVER 8.5 -115 (ok to -150)
ATL UNDER 7.5 +115 (ok to -150)
BAL UNDER 11.5 -105 (ok to -150)
BUF UNDER 11.5 +145 (ok to -150)
CAR UNDER 6.5 +110 (ok to -150)
CHI UNDER 7.5 +145 (ok to -150)
CIN UNDER 9.5 +125 (ok to -150)
CLE OVER 5.5 +115 (ok to -150)
DAL OVER 8.5 +120 (ok to -150)
DEN UNDER 9.5 -115 (ok to -150)
DET UNDER 10.5 -120 (ok to -150)
GB UNDER 9.5 +100 (ok to -150)
HOU OVER 9.5 +100 (ok to -150)
IND UNDER 7.5 -110 (ok to -150)
JAX OVER 8.5 +140 (ok to -150)
KC UNDER 11.5 -120 (ok to -150)
LV OVER 7.5 +140 (ok to -150)
LAC OVER 9.5 -115 (ok to -150)
LAR UNDER 9.5 +120 (ok to -150)
MIA OVER 7.5 -115 (ok to -150)
MN UNDER 9.5 -125 (ok to -150)
NE UNDER 8.5 +100 (ok to -150)
NO OVER 5.5 +100 (ok to -150)
NYG OVER 5.5 +125 (ok to -150)
NYJ UNDER 5.5 +135 (ok to -150)
PHI UNDER 11.5 -130 (ok to -150)
PIT OVER 8.5 -120 (ok to -150)
SF OVER 10.5 +110 (ok to -150)
SEA UNDER 7.5 +140 (ok to -150)
TB OVER 9.5 -105 (ok to -150)
TN OVER 6.5 +130 (ok to -150)
WASH UNDER 9.5 +105 (ok to -150)

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-420) — CIN @ NYY 1:36 PM ET
• Logan Webb 4+ Strikeouts (-900) — SF Giants @ MIA Marlins 1:41 PM ET
• Dustin May 4+ Strikeouts (-500) — STL Cardinals @ KC Royals 2:11 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-300) — BOS @ SEA 4:11 PM ET
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• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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