European Football Review 3rd-5th November 2026

Lots happening in this week's European competitions so let's begin.

Manchester United 3-2 Roma
An astonishing game which initially looked like it was aligning well with my pre game projections and then took a sharp twist. In the first half, Roma's aggressive man orientated press caused United a lot of problems and Roma opened the scoring early on attack the space behind an out of position Diogo Dalot. Roma added a second from a penalty soon afterwards after a very needless handball from Ayden Heaven. Roma stayed on top for the rest of the half but didn't press hard for a third goal. In the second half, United played more aggressively and positioned their players to challenge Roma players receiving the ball. Gian Piero Gasperini made substitutions to contest the game more physically but it came at the expense of Roma's technical control over the game. United pulled one back from a penalty before two late goals completed the comeback.

This is the second two goal lead Roma have thrown away for a loss in the Champions League this season and managing leads has been something of a curse for them going back a long time across different teams and managers. What really stands out is that when the game changes, it is not that Roma doesn't adapt, it's they make the wrong adaption. Against Real Madrid, the three late goals they conceded were from balls crossed into the box which they were not equipped to defend. They appear to be lacking the ability to take the sting out of the game and make the trailing team do the lead, the Pep Guardiola's Man City or Spain under Luis De La Fuente. Any team that ever had Andrea Pirlo in it could do the same. This is a major cause for concern that I will have to consider when giving out picks on them. I believe they should still be good for first half picks but full game picks they are a candidate for cash out and the signal I would be looking for is them departing from their pressure and possession methods.

I did anticipate that this would be a transition heavy game with opportunities at both ends and so both teams to score and the over I believe did represent value. I am surprised that United of all teams in their downward ebb would find the means to comeback from that but maybe I should not have been quite so surprised. I thought that the collapse against Real Madrid may have been an outlier. Even a dysfunctional United still maintains a lot of transition threat and physicality to turn a game into a contest. Roma will now face a struggle just to qualify for the playoff round.

Barcelona 3-0 Aston Villa
Despite the scoreline and the manner of the goals, this was a game where Unai Emery had a very specific tactical gameplan that looked to be working quite effectively at times. Aston Villa tried to bait Barcelona's press and then play through it. They positioned their offensive players in such a way to threaten the space behind Barcelona's defence and behind their midfield at the same time. Rodri's presence was able to mitigate that threat but Aston Villa were lacking a little bit of transition threat to make Barcelona pay. Barcelona created chances from high pressure and their opening goal came from Lamine Yamal pouncing on a loose pass across defence and finishing the chance. From a chance creation perspective this game was closer than the scoreline suggested, with Barcelona having modest chance creation by their standards and Aston Villa having generated some decent opportunities of their own.

I had Aston Villa to cover the spread and despite what we saw I think that line was still a bit too high and so I would see some value on Villa. I do think that the over and both teams to score were too aggressively priced and so I would see this as a spot where there was some value on the under. The prescient point is that Emery set up Aston Villa to play very tactically and Barcelona had enough at the back to make the transition opportunities difficult.

Atlético Madrid 0-2 Bayern Munich
This game was a little bit of a misfire for Atlético Madrid as Bayern Munich were able to keep the pressure on them for the whole game and although Atlético defended well for long stretches, they struggled to find a consistent outlet for their attacks. When Bayern lost the ball they were effective in winning it back quickly and they always had options to stretch Atlético's back line. The opening goal came from a Robin Le Normand error and it's mare from the first he's made this season. Some fans have remarked that he has not been as consistent defensively since his head injury and that he along with Clément Lenglet have not been reliable enough to start consistently in the big games. Atlético already had some injuries going into the game and Diego Simeone's substitutions did help them to compete a bit but Ademola Lookman still looks badly bereft of confidence and Álex Baena and Alexander Sørloth did not look on the same wavelength. The return of Koke as a substitute is a boost for Atlético but with a home game at the top of the table against Barcelona coming up, the performance against Bayern raises big concerns for Atlético's ability to find a way through the relentless pressure of Barcelona.

https://www.intothecalderon.com/atletico-madrid-columns/29541/atletico-de-madrid-0-2-bayern-munich-takeaways-champions-league-simeone-le-normand

Feyenoord 0-3 Inter Milan
Cristian Chivu's side bounced back from a disappointing derby day loss to defeat Feyenoord in a game in which Inter consistently found space in behind Feyenoord's pressing structure. Feyenoord were able to launch attacks but they struggled to advance through multiple phases. Club Brugge employed a high intensity press against Inter Milan and were able to consistently find space on Inter's back flanks, which Inter's structure struggled to keep tight while they attacked. Feyenoord were not able to access that space quite so easily and so they did not generate the same chances as Club Brugge. From a chance creation perspective this game was a fair bit closer than the scoreline suggested, enough that it might imply some value on Feyenoord in this game. But Inter led from an early point and so Inter were managing a lead for most of the game, Inter's chance creation profile looks very different when they go behind.

Fenerbahçe 3-2 Liverpool
Despite Fenerbahçe's struggles, their former player Dirk Kuyt led them to a 3-2 win over Liverpool, the club he spent years of his career with as a player. before he signed for Fenerbahçe as a player. Liverpool were favoured by a goal going into this game despite having a very week European record in Turkey (funnily enough their one win was against Trabzonspor in 2010 and the winning goal was scored by Dirk Kuyt). As is not uncommon for teams in the Turkish Süper Lig, Fenerbahçe had some players signed on big money from mainland Europe, such as Romelu Lukaku and N'Golo Kante. Liverpool took the lead from a deflection before Fenerbahçe hit the crossbar and equalised from a deflected free kick. The two teams exchanged blows in the second half before Fenerbahçe scored the winner. This was a game in which Fenerbahçe were able match Liverpool's intensity and take the initiative for the win. This kind of intensity is a recurring pattern in Turkish teams at home in Europe, especially against English teams. I would say there was good value on Fenerbahçe in this matchup and their chance creation was close to Liverpool's.

Slavia Praha 1-2 Arsenal
The first half of this game looked like a typical low volatility Arsenal game where they grind out a lead and then grind out the game. At half time Arsenal were 2-0 up and Slavia Praha had only one shot, not on target. The second half was a very different game as Slavia went with three centre backs and pushed the rest of the team to press Arsenal. This helped Slavia to compete more effectively with Arsenal and disrupt their passing. Slavia had a lot of chances and despite not scoring until the 90th minute, their chance creation exceeded Arsenal's over the course of the game. Normally Arsenal are able to withstand a physical high pressure style but the switch to three at the back is a very interesting tactical decision that has implications for the failure modes of Arsenal's strategy.

Crystal Palace 1-1 Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace's struggles this season continue, once again to a high pressing team that was able to maintain pressure throughout the game. If Oliver Glasner were still there they may have been able to hurt Hoffenheim on the counter even with the departures from Palace's squad but the vision for Palace under Pierre Sage still is not quite clear. Despite all this, it was not an entirely disappointing result for Palace as they did find an equaliser after going down to ten men. Since Palace were favoured by over half a goal going into this game, I think the value was on Hoffenheim.

AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Juventus
Juventus were able to exploit the space behind Alkmaar's press and this helped them to build a two goal lead in the first half. Alkmaar struggled to create clear cut chances at first but as the second half progressed they got into more and more dangerous positions and they were unlucky not to pull a goal back until very late, when there was little time left to find an equaliser. From a chance creation perspective, Juventus did not create a lot for two goals and Feyenoord may consider themselves slightly unlucky to be 2-0 down at half time. Game management has not been a consistent strength for Juventus this season and on another night they may well have paid for the chances given up. Since they were favoured by half a goal going into this game, I think there may have been some value on Feyenoord, even after accounting for the divergence in chance creation you can see when one team spends most of the game defending a two goal lead.

FC Thun 3-1 Heart of Midlothian
Hearts' injuries were a major problem for them and FC Thun's aggressive pressure helped them disrupt their buildup and find space in behind their defence. Although Hearts had more possession, FC Thun were more effective at attacking quickly after regaining possession of the ball. Chance creation was closer than the 3-1 score implied but it was still clear enough that it did support some value on FC Thun.

We are halfway through the league phase of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. Each game from here on in brings more and more clarity to the final picture.