2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Overview: While English Premier League made enough profits to survive any luck in Champagne, it was something to watch Nebraska manage to recapture bad luck in a bottle like last year's game in Lincoln against the Illini, and make you wonder what football gods Scott Frost offended in taking the job in his school of origin. Nebraska outgunned Illinois in the air, on the ground, in total yards, in yards per play, and the metrics best predictive of college football, yet lost. How? Two missed extra points, a called back INT, a safety based on a questionable call, a fumble recovery for Illinois in a TD seconds before the end of the half, a punt that magically landed at the half-yard line, as Illinois managed 21 offensive points, and 7 of that came on the penalty-laden drive that reversed an INT at midfield.
Inside the Stat Sheet: While most metrics would have Nebraska winning most of the time, there was one big risk area for the Huskers: an underwhelming offensive performance, with QB Martinez missing multiple open receivers, including for open touchdowns, the short-yardage passing game struggling, and the running game stuffed. Illinois' offense averaged a mere 4.9 yards per play, which usually results in a sub-20 points offensive output, and may have benefited from the one bad-luck play of their side of the ball -- replacing Peters with Rutgers transfer Sitkowski, the latter a better fit for Bielema's boys. The promising defensive play in the ex-Missouri DC provides promise on that side of the ball for the Illini, though Nebraska's big plays featured its one traditional vulnerability -- big plays in the man-heavy defense.
Early Future Forecast: for the rest of the season shows Scott Frost on a very hot, hot seat in Lincoln, needing Martinez to steady his hand at QB, while the rest of the unit proved promising on both sides of the ball. Great start for Bielema, even if luck played the ultimate tipping factor, but his success will likely depend on facing weak run defenses and offenses that lack big-play ability in the passing game especially. Watch for betting opportunities if the public over-reacts to Nebraska's loss and Illinois' win in the next few weeks, as most bettors rarely look past the score in the box score to assess the future of both teams.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
HEADS UP NEW MARKET WATCH
Hungarian elections Date April 2026
Who will win the 2026 Hungary general election?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhungaryparli/hungary-parliament/kxhungaryparli-26
Who will be the Prime Minister of Hungary after their election?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnexthungarypm/next-prime-minister-of-hungary/kxnexthungarypm-26may01
Orban has a 2/3 majority and his party has held power since 2010. The entire liberal EU Globo homo establishment is going to wage war on him to get him out.
Orban is trading at 44% to be the next prime minster. I already put 0.15% bet on him.
Based on his messaging as the anti war candidate NOT just the anti EU candidate this positions him as the favorite alone. With a long history of WALKING THE TALK TOO.
However, I don't want a repeat of Romania or the netherlands for that matter @SportsPicks. I'm building out those machine learning datelining technique so we know what's on people minds.
Hungary: will Orbán be voted out of office in 2026?
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