Monday Morning QB: College Football
Top 10 under-the-radar stat stories of the college football weekend...
Three of the five most misleading scores of the week cost me six wins in the betting column. I promise not to sweat or swear at the gambling deities this week. A look-in at the stats behind the box score:
Most Misleading Scores
1. The stat line would predict Utah beat BYU 34 to 17, but that wasn't the final score, as the Utes suffered an upset loss in the rivalry game due to the luck of the game.
2. The stat line would also forecast Iowa State finally got their big win over instate rival Iowa, but that wasn't the final, as Iowa won by double digits in Ames as the ball, quite literally, bounced the Hawkeyes way.
3. The stat line suggests Tennessee nipped Pitt in a low scoring duel 27 to 17, but a few fumbles, a missed 4th and goal, an INT in the red zone, some untimely penalties, and a few injuries all broke the Panthers' way for the win and cover for the travelers.
4. Kansas offense actually got going, and the analytics would forecast a 32 to 45 loss for an easy cover of the 27 point spread at kickoff. Instead, the game finished right on the number, unless you're me, and you got the number a half point less.
5. The efficiency metrics would normally yield a 17 to 3 win for Syracuse over Rutgers, but the final score was flipped on the big board.
Biggest Surprises
6. Notre Dame's defense continues to struggle under celebrated new DC Freeman, as they gave up 5.6 yards per play and 29 points at home to MAC opponent Toledo, and needed a late rally to even win outright.
7.Meanwhile, Florida State's offense collapsed, as they suffered a humiliating home loss on the last play of the game to a bomb from Jacksonville State. Coaching seat already heating up again in Tallahassee.
8. Stanford returned to underdog form, and shocked the Trojans as 17 point dogs in the Coliseum, a pattern Stanford is known for in the David Shaw era, as they rediscovered the offense that disappeared in Dallas a week ago.
9. The Ducks answered the big question of the game -- which would fail to show up, the Duck offense or the Buckeye defense -- by responding with nearly 7 yards per play, an early lead they kept all game, and 35 points on the board. A big win as 15 point dogs in Columbus.
10. A&M barely survived their early QB injury to rally for a 4th quarter TD in Boulder and win against the Buffs.
*Note for future: I will send updates of late adds to the pick sheet, as those picks went 4-0 on Saturday in Bowling Green, South Carolina, Cal and Stanford. The notice update button is perfectly designed to provide those kind of late-breaking recommendations.
