2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
October 15, 2021
Public Betting Favorites...
I like betting against the public. Here are some of the biggest public preferences this week, with the share of the public betting on each team...
Syracuse 75%
San Diego State 74%
North Carolina 72%
Texas Tech 77%
Michigan State 72%
Army 72%
Boston College 74%
Nebraska 70%
Cincinnati 67%
Rutgers 74%
Arizona 72%
Air Force 74%
UCLA 75%
Liberty 73%
TCU 67%
Alabama 76%
Florida 82%
NFL
Texans 69%
Chiefs 86%
Chargers 81%
Rams 78%
Lions 68%
Browns 65%
Cowboys 68%
Steelers 65%
Bills 82%
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
