2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
October 20, 2021
Advice on Line Shopping
First, if you can, always shop for the best lines, which include the best "juice"; this includes getting a bet at +100 or -105 rather than -110.
Second, because my bets tend to be "against the public", you can often wait for lines better than when I initially post them. You can monitor where the public is trending here (https://www.wagertalk.com/freeOddsPage/page.html?sport=today&v=2.2) & here (https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/) & here (https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/public-betting) & here (https://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart). I post them early so that you can be on the alert to get the best odds.
Third, per a popular question, I never change the amount of my betting base all year. If you are betting $100 per bet, I never change that all betting "season" for that particular sport. The reason is the luck factor -- frankly, you never know when it will break with you or against you, so putting too much at risk in just one part of the season for a sport is more risk than reward, from my perspective. Do note there are many bettors who disagree, and change their betting base depending on their bankroll size at any given time, but I don't happen to share that approach myself. As always, do as you wish.
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New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...
