2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 23, 2021
Picks & Predictions: Turkey & Football Week
EPL
LEEDS +1/2 BRI
EVE +1/2 BRENT
MANU +1 CHE
NCAAF
NEB +1 ½ IO
UNC +5 ½ NCST
1ST HALF UNC-NCST UNDER 31
MO +15 ARK
TCU-IOST OVER 59
KST-TX OVER 51
OHST-MICH UNDER 64
SYR +13 PITT
BC +5 WF
BC +180 WF
KY +2 ½ LOU
KY +120 LOU
MS -1 ½ RUTG
GAT +35 GA
IND +16 PUR
1ST HALF IND-PUR UNDER 25
VAT +7 VA
VAT-VA OVER 52
TT-BAY OVER 52
WIS -7 MN
USC +7 BYU
USC +200 BYU
1ST HALF CAL-UCLA UNDER 30
OR -6 ½ ORST
OR -220 ORST
OK +4 OKST
OK +160 OKST
AUB +20 ALA
PNST +1 MIST
1ST HALF PNST-MST UNDER 26
FL -2 ½ FSU
NW +6 ½ IL
UCLA -6 ½ CAL
LSU +6 ½ AM
NFL
DET +3 ½ CHI
CHI UNDER 23 ½
1ST HALF LV +4 DAL
DAL UNDER 28 ½
NO +5 BUF
1ST HALF NO-BUF UNDER 23 ½
1H TN +3 NE
TN-NE OVER 44
1ST HALF NYJ-HOU UNDER 22
HOU UNDER 23 ½
1ST HALF ATL-JAX UNDER 23 ½
JAX UNDER 23 ½
DEN +3 LAC
1ST HALF LAC-DEN UNDER 23 ½
NYG +3 ½ PHI
PHI UNDER 24 ½
MIA +2 CAR
GB +0 LAR
LAR-GB OVER 47 ½
SEA +1 WASH
1ST HALF SEA-WASH UNDER 23
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
