2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
December 14, 2021
Picks: Football Week 17
EPL
NORWICH +270 AV
BURNLEY-WATFORD DRAW +250
ARSENAL-WEST HAM DRAW +265
LEICESTER-TOTTENHAM DRAW +280
CRYSTAL PALACE-SOUTHAMPTON DRAW +240
SOUTHAMPTON-BRENTFORD DRAW +260
WEST HAM -220 NORWICH
EVERTON-LEICESTER DRAW +240
WOLVES +580 CHELSEA
NEWCASTLE +2 MAN CITY
TOTTENHAM +1 LIVERPOOL
NCAAF
MTSU +10 ½ TOLEDO
MTSU +320 TOLEDO
NIL +10 ½ CCAR
NIL +320 CCAR
BYU -6 ½ UAB
UAB UNDER 24
UAB-BYU 1st HALF UNDER 27 ½
LIBERTY -9 EMICH
ORST -7 UTST
UTST UNDER 30
ORST-UTST 1ST HALF UNDER 34
ULL -4 ½ MARSHALL
NFL
LAC +3 ½ KC
1ST HALF LV +3 ½ CLE
LV-CLE OVER 41 ½
1ST HALF CAR +7 BUF
1ST HALF NYJ +5 MIA
MIA UNDER 26 ½
NYG +10 ½ DAL
1ST HALF BAL +4 GB
GB-BAL OVER 43 ½
DET +14 ARI
1ST HALF ATL +6 SF
SF UNDER 27 ½
1ST HALF CIN +1 DEN
1ST HALF SEA +4 LAR
1ST HALF NO +6 ½ TB
CHI +3 ½ MN
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
