2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 20, 2022
NFL Divisional Playoff Round Player Props
Smaller bets recommended on player props, like 1% of bankroll.
Bengals WR Chase Receiving Yards OVER 76
Bengals QB Burrow Passing Yards OVER 275 1/2
Titans WR AJ Brown Receiving Yards OVER 72 1/2
Titans QB Tannehill Passing Yards OVER 236 1/2
49ers QB Garoppolo Passing Yards OVER 230 1/2
49ers TE George Kittle Receiving Yards OVER 46 1/2
Packers RB AJ Dillon Rushing Yards UNDER 45 1/2
Packers WR Adams Receiving Yards OVER 90 1/2
Packers QB Rodgers Passing Yards OVER 261 1/2
Chiefs QB Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 22
Chiefs TE Kelce Receiving Yards OVER 70 1/2
Bills TE Dawson Knox Receiving Yards OVER 37 1/2
Bills QB Allen Passing Yards UNDER 277 1/2
Bucs QB Brady Passing Yards OVER 286 1/2
Bucs WR Evans Receiving Yards OVER 70 1/2
Rams QB Stafford Passing Yards OVER 279 1/2
Rams WR Beckham Receiving Yards OVER 45 1/2
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
