2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 22, 2022
Why I Am Skeptical of the Bills
A popular pick across the football landscape this weekend is the Bills, as they are the smallest dog on the board, the most anticipated game, and getting the most Super Bowl hype. I think they are the worst team left in the playoffs. Here's why.
1. Josh Allen is overrated. I use certain metrics to measure QBs, and my favorite are net yards per attempt (factors in sacks) and traditional passer rating. I like consistency in QBs. Of the 8 QBs in the playoffs, including looking at Tannehill's stats w/ Henry in the lineup, 7 of the 8 feature elite stat profiles on those key metrics. Only 1 doesn't. That 1 is Josh Allen. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you a 100+ passer rating, Allen is more likely to give you a poor under 85 passer rating. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you 7+ NYA than under 6 NYA, Allen is twice as likely to give you under 6 NYA. Accuracy is Allens issue.
2. Bills lost their elite QB Tre White earlier in the year, and only faced 3 quality offenses since then, giving up 31, 33 and 41 points defensively. They most feasted on awful or rookie offenses, inflating their defensive stats.
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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
FUN SIDE BETS (Report and New Bets)
Had two bets today on the two Italian Soccer games. Both won which is good.
New bets are posted below for tomorrow.
Images keep coming out fuzzy when trying to post on here so I'm dropping in the text.
TICKET_NUM DATE BET BET_TYPE RESULT WAGER WON RETURN
907881654-3 10/30/2025 SOCCER - 826502 Melbourne Victory +102 Money Line Pending 1 1.02 0
907881654-2 10/30/2025 SOCCER - 816004 Getafe +118 Money Line Pending 1 1.18 0
907881654-1 10/30/2025 SOCCER - 807306 Draw (Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez) +252 Money Line Pending 1 2.52 0
907847405-1 10/30/2025 SOCCER - 813003 Draw (Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund) +335 Money Line Pending 1 3.35 0
907813101-2 10/30/2025 SOCCER - 814027 Draw (Pisa vs Lazio) +224 Money Line Won 1 2.24 3.24
907813101-1 10/30/2025 SOCCER - 814053 Sassuolo +205 Money Line Won 1 2.05 3.05
