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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 22, 2022
Why I Am Skeptical of the Bills
A popular pick across the football landscape this weekend is the Bills, as they are the smallest dog on the board, the most anticipated game, and getting the most Super Bowl hype. I think they are the worst team left in the playoffs. Here's why.
1. Josh Allen is overrated. I use certain metrics to measure QBs, and my favorite are net yards per attempt (factors in sacks) and traditional passer rating. I like consistency in QBs. Of the 8 QBs in the playoffs, including looking at Tannehill's stats w/ Henry in the lineup, 7 of the 8 feature elite stat profiles on those key metrics. Only 1 doesn't. That 1 is Josh Allen. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you a 100+ passer rating, Allen is more likely to give you a poor under 85 passer rating. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you 7+ NYA than under 6 NYA, Allen is twice as likely to give you under 6 NYA. Accuracy is Allens issue.
2. Bills lost their elite QB Tre White earlier in the year, and only faced 3 quality offenses since then, giving up 31, 33 and 41 points defensively. They most feasted on awful or rookie offenses, inflating their defensive stats.
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Free Picks for Saturday
*Note: the pick is for the team listed first, in all caps. For MLB the pick is for that team to win the game on the money line. For the game total pick, the pick is for both teams combined score to finish UNDER that total for the game. For the college football picks, the pick if listed by a PLUS sign is for that team to NOT lost by more than that margin; e.g., at +13.5, the pick is for that team to either win or not lose by 14 or more. The % listed in front of each pick is the recommended MAXIMUM percentage of your bankroll -- the amount you have set aside for the year to use for trading/betting on prediction markets/sportsbooks to placer on that particular pick. The listed line is the targeted line that is available in the markets; the "ok to" is if you cannot find that line, it is ok to take the pick up to that point; e.g., if it says "ok to -130" that means it's ok to take as long as it's not higher than -130 (e.g., -135) or if it says "ok to +13" that means it's ok at any spread +13 or ...
