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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 22, 2022
Why I Am Skeptical of the Bills
A popular pick across the football landscape this weekend is the Bills, as they are the smallest dog on the board, the most anticipated game, and getting the most Super Bowl hype. I think they are the worst team left in the playoffs. Here's why.
1. Josh Allen is overrated. I use certain metrics to measure QBs, and my favorite are net yards per attempt (factors in sacks) and traditional passer rating. I like consistency in QBs. Of the 8 QBs in the playoffs, including looking at Tannehill's stats w/ Henry in the lineup, 7 of the 8 feature elite stat profiles on those key metrics. Only 1 doesn't. That 1 is Josh Allen. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you a 100+ passer rating, Allen is more likely to give you a poor under 85 passer rating. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you 7+ NYA than under 6 NYA, Allen is twice as likely to give you under 6 NYA. Accuracy is Allens issue.
2. Bills lost their elite QB Tre White earlier in the year, and only faced 3 quality offenses since then, giving up 31, 33 and 41 points defensively. They most feasted on awful or rookie offenses, inflating their defensive stats.
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00:55:38
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...
Crick's Picks: MLB - 6/23/25
Well yesterday was one of the MOST TERRIBLE "Championship Sundays" I've EVER been a part of!! That's not even from a sports betting standpoint, but from a FAN'S view!! I could rant for days about it, but I don't feel like typing all that out this afternoon... SO... With that said... If you want my opinions about yesterday in the Sportsverse... Join me for "Crick's Corner" today at 3:00 PM EST, and I'll tell ya ALL ABOUT IT!! We're OFFICIALLY in the "Dog Days" of the Sports' Calendar, however, as we have ONLY BASEBALL to wager on for the next couple months... Oh Joy... I can barely hide my excitement... Ah well.. Gotta have something to do until Football Season... I mean WHAT COULD GO WRONG right?!?! You & Your Beautiful Families STAY SAFE Out There!!! Good Luck & Good Gamblin!!!!
TUNE IN for "Crick's Corner" at 3:00 PM EST (Monday - Friday) over on the "Sportspicks" Channel on Rumble!! Hope To See Y'all There!!!!
ATS = Against The Spread
ML = MoneyLine
60 Minute ML = ML Bet for Regulation / If Game Goes to OT, Bet is a LOSS
Tie No Bet = ML Bet For Regulation / If Game Goes to OT, Bet is a PUSH
ALT = Alternate Spreads
SGP = Same Game Parlay
TT = Team Total
IPP = Individual Player Props
**PL (Puck Line) = -1.5/+1.5 Goals ...
