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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 22, 2022
Why I Am Skeptical of the Bills
A popular pick across the football landscape this weekend is the Bills, as they are the smallest dog on the board, the most anticipated game, and getting the most Super Bowl hype. I think they are the worst team left in the playoffs. Here's why.
1. Josh Allen is overrated. I use certain metrics to measure QBs, and my favorite are net yards per attempt (factors in sacks) and traditional passer rating. I like consistency in QBs. Of the 8 QBs in the playoffs, including looking at Tannehill's stats w/ Henry in the lineup, 7 of the 8 feature elite stat profiles on those key metrics. Only 1 doesn't. That 1 is Josh Allen. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you a 100+ passer rating, Allen is more likely to give you a poor under 85 passer rating. While most of the QBs are 2x more likely to give you 7+ NYA than under 6 NYA, Allen is twice as likely to give you under 6 NYA. Accuracy is Allens issue.
2. Bills lost their elite QB Tre White earlier in the year, and only faced 3 quality offenses since then, giving up 31, 33 and 41 points defensively. They most feasted on awful or rookie offenses, inflating their defensive stats.
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
