2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 27, 2022
NFL Championship Games: Picks
2% Picks
1st Half Cincy +4 Kansas City
1st Half Cincy-Kansas City UNDER 27
Rams -3 1/2 49ers
Rams-49ers OVER 45 1/2
1% Picks (or however you want for fun)
1st Half San Fran OVER 9 1/2
1st Half Kansas City UNDER 14 1/2
Cincinnati OVER 23 1/2
Rams OVER 24 1/2
Garoppolo Passing Yards OVER 225 1/2
Mixon Rushing Yards OVER 51
Mixon Receiving Yards UNDER 31
Uzomah Receiving Yards OVER 33
Boyd Receiving Yards UNDER 40
Kittle Receiving Yards OVER 48
Burrow Passing Yards OVER 284
Mahomes Rushing Yards UNDER 32
Beckham Receiving Yards OVER 50
Samuel Rushing Yards UNDER 39
Aiyuk Receiving Yards OVER 47
Garoppolo Rushing Yards OVER 1 1/2
Juszczyk Receiving Yards OVER 9 1/2
Edwards-Hilaire Rushing Yards OVER 37
Higbee Receiving Yards OVER 41
Kelce Receiving Yards OVER 75
Mahomes UNDER 2 1/2 Passing TDs
Kupp Receiving Yards UNDER 105
Samuel Receiving Yards UNDER 53
Hill Receptions UNDER 6 1/2
Kupp Receptions UNDER 8 1/2
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
