2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 30, 2022
NFL Playoffs
Prop picks made money, but game bets failed. Had the wrong half on the Bengals game, but was glad to see some folks used the info to take live in game bets for a profit. The Rams kept shooting themselves in the foot again, with INTs on the goal line, failed 4th downs, and missed field goals. Both tight ends I had $ on managed to get hurt in the 1st quarter, which was a sign that Lady Luck was no lady this Sunday. Still, promising that that the prop bets won both weekends, as over time if you get right what happens within a game to the level of individual player performance, your game bets will win more often than not. Will have a bunch of prop bets for the Big Game in two weeks, and the future on the Rams I have out on Sportswars early in the year looks good, even if I will probably be cheering for the Bengals to pull off the upset. After that, will have NCAA and NBA picks in later February, before the big fun of the big dance for March Madness.
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Betting Psychology and Risk Management
This post is partially motivated by the incoming surge in official picks we are going to have as well as the dismay here some have experienced with the downturn we've had over the past few weeks. Risk-based moneymaking is not an easy pursuit and the vast majority of people who try their hand at it fail. It is important that you arm yourselves with as may tools as possible so that you will be in the profitable minority. Most people find it difficult enough to look at their investment portfolios during a relatively mild downturn, and that's with professional hedge fund managers doing insulating them from the very real challenges of risking our money and making a profit from it. Anyone who is active here is choosing to take that risk into their own hands. There are big rewards for this but also very big risks. This post is about preventing you from being taken out by those risk.
The primary way that we mount our offence us through our edge. A statistical...
