2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
February 02, 2022
Super Bowl Betting Trends
In the modern era of the NFL (since 2005), here is the Super Bowl betting records:
Dogs of 3 or more: 9-4
$Line Returns for Dogs of 3 or more: +600 (6-7 straight up)
Over When Total Under 50: 7-4
Dogs of 3 or more w/ a Top-10 Rated QB: 7-2 against the spread
Over When Both QBs Top-10 Rated & Total Under 50: 6-1
Trends point toward Bengals & Over. Both bets can likely wait as $ pours in on the Rams and the Under. I will have my picks out by Friday, more than a week before the game.
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
