2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.Â
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
February 08, 2022
Super Bowl Picks
Special 5% Play
Teaser: Bengals +10 1/2 & Over 42 1/2
1/2 of 1% Plays
Coin Flip: Heads (b/c why not? 😀)
National Anthem OVER 100 seconds
Mickey Guyton National Anthem Outfit Color Blue +400
1Q CIN +1/2
2Q CIN +1/2
3Q CIN +1/2
4Q CIN +1/2
1st Half CIN +3
1st Half OVER 23 1/2
CIN 1st Q OVER 3 1/2
CIN 2nd Half OVER 10 1/2
CIN Game OVER 21 1/2
1Q OVER 9 1/2
3Q OVER 9 1/2
Beckham TD +140
Mixon TD +100
Jefferson Receiving Yards OVER 31
Jefferson Receptions OVER 2 1/2
Jefferson TD +300
Perine Receiving Yards OVER 11
Perine Receptions OVER 1 1/2
No Lead Over 14 1/2
1st Score: Touchdown
Total Sacks OVER 5
Interceptions OVER 1 1/2
Stafford INT YES
Burrow INT YES
Burrow OVER 1 1/2 TD
Stafford Longest Pass UNDER 39 1/2
Akers OVER 15 1/2 Rushes
CIN 3rd Downs Converted OVER 5 1/2 +165
1st Akers Rush OVER 3 1/2 Yards
1st Mixon Rush UNDER 3 1/2 Yards
Longest TD UNDER 41 1/2 Yards
Total Points Kicker McPherson OVER 7 1/2
Bengals Rushing TD -140
Stafford Completions OVER 24 1/2
Total Points Kicker Gay OVER 7 1/2
Burrow OVER 268 Passing Yards
Total Punts OVER 5 1/2
First Kickoff by Gay Not A Touchback
CIN +7 1/2 -160
Total Field Goals OVER 3 1/2
2PT Attempt YES
Michel OVER 5 1/2 rushing attempts
Boyd OVER 40 1/2 Receiving Yards
Boyd OVER 3 1/2 Receptions
McPherson OVER 1 1/2 Field Goals
CIN Win 1st Half & Game: +310
Team Scores Last Wins Game YES
2nd Half Higher Scoring than 1st Half YES
Stafford UNDER 5 1/2 Rushing Yards
Burrow UNDER 11 1/2 Rushing Yards
Akers OVER 60 Rushing Yards
Rams Rushing TD -150
Missed Extra Point NO -275
Burrow +8 1/2 Passing Yards Stafford
Kupp, Beckham, Chase, Higgins all OVER 49 1/2 receiving yards +160
Stafford OVER 36 1/2 Attempts
Boyd Longest Reception UNDER 18 1/2
Higgins Receiving Yards OVER 70
Perine Rushing Yards UNDER 5 1/2
Rams 3d Downs OVER 5 1/2
Rams to Call 1st Timeout
Rams to Make 1st Challenge
Bengals - 7 1/2 +500
Mixon Receiving Yards OVER 25 1/2
Stafford INT before TD +250
3 or more players to throw a pass YES +170
Burrow MVP +225
Ramsey MVP +6000
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
