SportsPicks

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

February 08, 2022

Super Bowl Picks

Special 5% Play
Teaser: Bengals +10 1/2 & Over 42 1/2

1/2 of 1% Plays
Coin Flip: Heads (b/c why not? 😀)
National Anthem OVER 100 seconds
Mickey Guyton National Anthem Outfit Color Blue +400
1Q CIN +1/2
2Q CIN +1/2
3Q CIN +1/2
4Q CIN +1/2
1st Half CIN +3
1st Half OVER 23 1/2
CIN 1st Q OVER 3 1/2
CIN 2nd Half OVER 10 1/2
CIN Game OVER 21 1/2
1Q OVER 9 1/2
3Q OVER 9 1/2
Beckham TD +140
Mixon TD +100
Jefferson Receiving Yards OVER 31
Jefferson Receptions OVER 2 1/2
Jefferson TD +300
Perine Receiving Yards OVER 11
Perine Receptions OVER 1 1/2
No Lead Over 14 1/2
1st Score: Touchdown
Total Sacks OVER 5
Interceptions OVER 1 1/2
Stafford INT YES
Burrow INT YES
Burrow OVER 1 1/2 TD
Stafford Longest Pass UNDER 39 1/2
Akers OVER 15 1/2 Rushes
CIN 3rd Downs Converted OVER 5 1/2 +165
1st Akers Rush OVER 3 1/2 Yards
1st Mixon Rush UNDER 3 1/2 Yards
Longest TD UNDER 41 1/2 Yards
Total Points Kicker McPherson OVER 7 1/2
Bengals Rushing TD -140
Stafford Completions OVER 24 1/2
Total Points Kicker Gay OVER 7 1/2
Burrow OVER 268 Passing Yards
Total Punts OVER 5 1/2
First Kickoff by Gay Not A Touchback
CIN +7 1/2 -160
Total Field Goals OVER 3 1/2
2PT Attempt YES
Michel OVER 5 1/2 rushing attempts
Boyd OVER 40 1/2 Receiving Yards
Boyd OVER 3 1/2 Receptions
McPherson OVER 1 1/2 Field Goals
CIN Win 1st Half & Game: +310
Team Scores Last Wins Game YES
2nd Half Higher Scoring than 1st Half YES
Stafford UNDER 5 1/2 Rushing Yards
Burrow UNDER 11 1/2 Rushing Yards
Akers OVER 60 Rushing Yards
Rams Rushing TD -150
Missed Extra Point NO -275
Burrow +8 1/2 Passing Yards Stafford
Kupp, Beckham, Chase, Higgins all OVER 49 1/2 receiving yards +160
Stafford OVER 36 1/2 Attempts
Boyd Longest Reception UNDER 18 1/2
Higgins Receiving Yards OVER 70
Perine Rushing Yards UNDER 5 1/2
Rams 3d Downs OVER 5 1/2
Rams to Call 1st Timeout
Rams to Make 1st Challenge
Bengals - 7 1/2 +500
Mixon Receiving Yards OVER 25 1/2
Stafford INT before TD +250
3 or more players to throw a pass YES +170
Burrow MVP +225
Ramsey MVP +6000

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Crickett1414@Crickett1414

15 hours ago

Barnes Brothers: World Cup Preview - Part 2

01:03:49

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

June 03, 2026

Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview

01:57:40

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

August 01, 2023

SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA

Live Chat

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 18, 2026

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

108

Jamie Donnelly@seimiodonnghaile

4 hours ago

World Cup Quarter Finals France vs Morocco - My Pick

1% Morocco not to lose vs France at 39c (good to 45c)
OR
1% Morocco +1.5 vs France at 65c (good to 69c)

Alright sorry I haven't been posting my picks in a while, the sheer volume of games means I'm always just running out of time for the next one and as it happens I'm off to the pub for this game so I'm going to keep this super brief.

Morocco have become a very stubborn yet adaptable team under Mohamed Ouahbi. They are capable of executing a high press or defending deep depending on what the situation demands and often within the same game. They have had challenges to present to every team they've faced and so far no opponent has had a full answer for it.

France have been strong this tournament but their team is very top heavy. Against Paraguay France struggled to create chances against a team that didn't give them the open space between lines they like to create at will. Morocco will be the first team that France encounters this ...

DannyWalter@MiracleManDan

2 hours ago

MiracleManDan's AI Baseball 7/9/26
Experimental

NOTES

New and updated angles fired today. New backtesting results:

Updated live policy for max robust profit: edge ≥ 3%, price ≤ +175.

Current vs new Policy

OLD edge≥5%, uncapped - N 1247 WR 41.2% Flat ROI +5.5% Flat net +68u Sized Net +171u

NEW edge≥3%, ≤+175 - N 1333 WR 46.1% Flat ROI +6.9% Flat net +92u Sized Net +154u

Max sized (3%, uncapped) - N 1685 WR 42.4% Flat ROI +4.9% Flat net +82u Sized Net +201u

Uncapped 3% wins on sized units only by keeping long dogs — rejected.

Cap at +175 is the best flat profit with higher WR.

Bottom line - fg_high_edge_underdog as implemented is projected at +154u for the season. Let's see if we can hit 75u for the second half (theoretical, I am not yet prepared to plunge on bet sizing).

f5 policies remain unchanged.

When both F5 an FG fire for the same game I am taking the one with the highest edge. Will get these combined, but want to refactor the output from csv into a DB first.

MLB F5 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-09 18:42 UTC

CSV:...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 30, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 15, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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