2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
February 09, 2022
Super Bowl Spread History
Underdogs of 4 or more since 2010 with a good career passer-rated QB:
Philly 2018: covered & won
Denver 2016: covered & won
Ravens 2012: covered & won
Saints 2010: covered & won
Cardinals 2009: covered
Giants 2008: covered & won
Six straight covers, and five straight up wins.
Total of less than 50 since 2009 w/ two good passer rated QBs that season:
Philly-New England OVER 49
New England-Seattle OVER 48
Seattle-Denver OVER 47 1/2
Baltimore-San Francisco OVER 48
Green Bay-Pittsburgh OVER 45
Pittsburgh-Arizona OVER 46
Six straight covers. 12-0 spread record history to favor the Bengals & over.
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
