2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Underdogs of 4 or more since 2010 with a good career passer-rated QB:
Philly 2018: covered & won
Denver 2016: covered & won
Ravens 2012: covered & won
Saints 2010: covered & won
Cardinals 2009: covered
Giants 2008: covered & won
Six straight covers, and five straight up wins.
Total of less than 50 since 2009 w/ two good passer rated QBs that season:
Philly-New England OVER 49
New England-Seattle OVER 48
Seattle-Denver OVER 47 1/2
Baltimore-San Francisco OVER 48
Green Bay-Pittsburgh OVER 45
Pittsburgh-Arizona OVER 46
Six straight covers. 12-0 spread record history to favor the Bengals & over.
New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...