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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
February 12, 2022
A Few Interesting Super Bowl Facts
1. The Bengals defense created more pressures on the QB this year than the Rams vaunted pass rush did.
2. Burrow & Stafford faced a few common opponents with winning records. Burrow's TD to INT ratio in those games was 13 to 4. Stafford's was 13 to 14.
3. Nobody on the Bengals starting defense is older than 27. The key players up front for the Rams defense are all 29 or older (Floyd, Von Miller, Donald). Defensive players tends to decline after age 29, as some of the stats show for some of the famed Rams' defensive line.
4. Despite having the #1 corner in pro football, #1 wideouts have generally averaged better-than-average statistical performances against the Rams, likely due to their heavy use of zone defenses.
5. Neither team appears to have great game planning, as both their offenses and defenses slightly underperform in 1st halves this season, but both teams show above-average adjustment ability, as their 2nd halves tend to make up for any poor offensive or defensive performance in the 1st halves of games.
*Bonus: Rams & Bengals each faced about 10 teams with top-rated passers. Bengals gave up an average of 24 points per game, while the "much better" Rams defense gave up an average of 27 points per game.
*2nd Bonus: When Bengals lose, it's usually a close loss. When Rams lose, it's been by double digits.
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Betting Psychology and Risk Management
This post is partially motivated by the incoming surge in official picks we are going to have as well as the dismay here some have experienced with the downturn we've had over the past few weeks. Risk-based moneymaking is not an easy pursuit and the vast majority of people who try their hand at it fail. It is important that you arm yourselves with as may tools as possible so that you will be in the profitable minority. Most people find it difficult enough to look at their investment portfolios during a relatively mild downturn, and that's with professional hedge fund managers doing insulating them from the very real challenges of risking our money and making a profit from it. Anyone who is active here is choosing to take that risk into their own hands. There are big rewards for this but also very big risks. This post is about preventing you from being taken out by those risk.
The primary way that we mount our offence us through our edge. A statistical...
