2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
July 19, 2022
NFL Futures Bet Recommendations
Some like taking futures bets. I only recommend allocating 10% in total to all futures bets, placing 0.2 units per bet. In other words, if your bankroll/investment for sports betting is $10,000, you would place $20 per futures bet, and so forth. Here are the official recommended futures bets for this year's NFL at current best odds.
Best Bets
Super Bowl
BENGALS +2200
COLTS +2500
CARDINALS +3500
TITANS +3500
RAIDERS +4000
VIKINGS +4500
PATRIOTS +5000
JAGS +13000
AFC TITLE
JAGS +6600
PATS +2200
RAIDERS +2200
TITANS +1600
NFL TITLE
CARDINALS +1400
VIKINGS +1800
AFC NORTH
BENGALS +185
AFC SOUTH
JAGS +700
AFC EAST
PATS +400
AFC WEST
RAIDERS +650
NFC WEST
CARDINALS +300
PLAYOFF ODDS
CARDINALS YES +125
BILLS NO +400
BEARS NO -550
COWBOYS YES -250
LIONS NO -550
JAGS YES +450
RAIDERS YES +160
VIKINGS YES +100
PATS YES +160
STEELERS NO -425
49ERS NO +175
WASHINGTON NO -185
WIN TOTALS
CARDINALS OVER 9 ½
BILLS UNDER 11 ½
BEARS UNDER 6 ½
BENGALS OVER 9 ½
COWBOYS OVER 10 ½
PACKERS OVER 11 ½
COLTS OVER 9 ½
RAIDERS OVER 8 ½
VIKINGS OVER 8 ½
GIANTS UNDER 7 ½
JETS UNDER 5 ½
STEELERS UNDER 7 ½
49ERS UNDER 9 ½
SEATTLE UNDER 5 ½
WASHINGTON UNDER 7 ½
MVP
MAC JONES +5000
MATT RYAN +8000
BAKER MAYFIELD +8000
LAWRENCE +6000
COUSINS +5000
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
