2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
SportsPicks@SportsPicks
August 27, 2022
Saturday Report Card
I use certain metrics to measure whether performance matched expectations, independent of outcome. For soccer, that's expected goals. For college football, that's yards per play. You will see good bets that lose and bad bets that win, due to the fortuity factor in competitive sports. A bet is a good bet if it would have beaten the odds over time. A bet is a bad bet if it would have not beaten the odds over time. Here's a report for the games to date:
EPL
Everton-Nottingham: Won bet. Good bet. Everton was a half-goal better in ExG, which should have made them 60% favorites, instead of even money.
Crystal Palace-Aston Villa. Won bet. Good bet. Palace was 1.1 goals better in ExG, which should have made them 68% favorites, instead of 40% underdogs.
Brentford-Fulham. Lost bet. Bad bet. Brentford was a full 1.3 goals worse in ExG, which should have made them 15% underdogs, instead of 35% underdogs.
Southampton-Leicester. Won bet. Good bet. Southampton was a full 1 goal better in ExG, which should have made them 66% favorites, instead of 23% favorites.
Leeds-Chelsea. Won bet. Good bet. Leeds outplayed Chelsea by an ExG of 1.2 goals, which should have made them 70% favorites, instead of 16% favorites.
Newcastle-Man City. Lost bet. Neutral bet. Man City needed a comeback to draw, as reflected in their ExG edge of 1.5 goals, which means Newcastle should have been 12% favorites, close to their actual rate as 11% favorites.
Manchester United-Liverpool. Won bet. Good bet. ManU outplayed Liverpool with an ExG edge of half a goal, which translates into ManU's proper price at 60% favorites, not 18% favorites, as they were priced.
Southampton-ManU. Lost. Good bet. Southhampton played ManU to a draw in ExG, which means they should have been 33% favorites instead of 24% favorites.
Leeds-Brighton. Lost. Neutral bet. Leeds ExG edge was a negative 0.4, which means they should have been 22% favorites and that is precisely where the odds were.
Chelsea-Leicester. Won. Bad bet. Chelsea played Leicester to a draw in ExG, which means they should have been 33% favorites instead of 70% favorites.
Man City-Crystal Palace. Won. Bad bet. Man City's 1.3 ExG edge made them 71% favorites rather than the 84% favorites they were.
Arsenal-Fulham. Won. Neutral bet. Arsenals' 1.5 ExG edge translates to a typical win rate of 75%, almost exactly their odds.
NCAAF
Nebraska-Northwestern. Lost. Bad bet. While 3 turnovers and a dumb failed offside kick up by 11 in the 2nd half likely led to the loss, the yard per play gap was only 0.2 in Nebraska's favor. Nebraska's 6.4 yards per play was right about predicted, but Northwestern's 6.2 yards per play was their best offensive performance in more than a decade. Indeed, it is Northwestern's best offensive performance against a defense with top-50 talent since 2011!
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
2025 NFL Draft Prospect - Anton Popov
My Guy Elio & I were BACK AT IT AGAIN Last Night, on "The Unscripted Sportscast"!! We were BLESSED to have Anton Popov, from Warner University & Barton College, join us to share his journey towards the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft!! From his roots in Raleigh, NC... All the way to the FBS Tropical Bowl, this young man has PUT THE WORK IN on the field & in the classroom!! We want to wish him the BEST OF LUCK in his preparations for the Draft & We VERY MUCH APPRECIATE him taking the time to join us and talk some Football!! KEEP UP THE GRIND BROTHER & I FIRMLY BELIEVE the Future is BRIGHT no matter what road life takes you down!! KEEP AN EYE OUT FOLKS for another HIDDEN GEM in the 2025 NFL Draft!!!!
00:22:33
2025 NFL Draft Prospect - Carl Smith Jr.
Once again, My guy Elio & myself were fortunate enough to have WR Carl Smith Jr. from Robert Morris University, join us for our show "The Unscripted Sportscast" last night!! The pleasure was ALL OURS, as he took time out of his busy schedule to sit down with us & talk some Football!! He shares his journey, from a kid growing up in Darby Township, PA to HIDDEN GEM in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft!! This is another young man with a VERY BRIGHT FUTURE ahead of him & we want to WISH HIM NOTHING BUT THE BEST!! Continue to grind it out with your INCREDIBLE WORK ETHIC, always remain a STUDENT OF THE GAME, lean on that DYNAMIC SUPPORT SYSTEM, & continue to STAY HUMBLE... and I have no doubt we'll see you playing on Sundays in the Fall!! Thank You so much for taking the time to come on the show. It's VERY MUCH APPRECIATED & You're welcome ANYTIME!! Good Luck in ALL YOU DO on & off the field!! KEEP AN EYE OUT FOLKS!! Mr. Smith is coming to an NFL Franchise near you!!!!
00:29:51
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
@SportsPicks
What are your thoughts of Kash Patel being nominated to be the head of the ATF in addition to the FBI? Is that possible? Would the Senate go for this?
I am asking because from the video below by Jared @ Guns and Gadgets, it seems that it was leaked that Trump will officially nominate Kash Patel shortly.
Crick's Picks: NCAAB, NBA, & NHL - 2/22/25
We're BACK AT IT Folks!! It's been a few days since I posted my picks, due to the fact there wasn't a whole lot of action goin on around the Sports Universe for the last week... Well, let me rephrase that... There was a lot goin on, with All Star Breaks & the 4 Nations Tourney in Hockey, but even with College Hoops still rollin along... The betting options were limited to say the least!! However, Today... WE'RE BACK BABY, as we have a MASSIVE SLATE across all sports & I've got a MONSTER CARD!! My results will be posted below, and I'll include the 4 Nations Results, but they won't be factored into our overall numbers for NCCAB, NBA, & NHL because I want to keep all that separate since they weren't "Actual NHL Games"... Let's see if we can get this thing CRANKED BACK UP THE RIGHT WAY!! You & Your Beautiful Families STAY SAFE Out There!!! Good Luck, Good Gamblin, & Go Vols!!!!
ATS = Against The Spread
ML = MoneyLine
ALT = Alternate Spreads
SGP = Same Game Parlay
TT = Team Total
1/2 Unit = .5 Units (50% Unit)
1/4 Unit = .25 Units (25% Unit)
SPRINKLE = At Your Discretion (DON'T GO CRAZY!!)
**THESE ARE NOT ...
