2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 06, 2022
Q1 Report
Going to do these every 50 picks, or so, which will typically be weekly during football season. We had everything this past wild weekend of opening week, making money on a middle (those who had Illinois +5 1/2 and Indiana to win cashed both tickets), crazy endings throughout, and live chatters cashed a late money line on Arizona at 2 to 1. The underlying statical data I review to assess bet accuracy also proved the bets would be profitable over time, as they were so far as well. I will calculate these based on the odds at the time I recommended the pick, even if the odds moved either against me or for me later on. The investment amount is the amount risked, the net is the net result of the recommended picks, and the profit is the rate of return, or "ROI", return on investment.
Q1 2022
INVESTMENT: $4600
NET: +1725
PROFIT (ROI): +37%
YTD
INVESTMENT: $4600
NET: +1725
PROFIT (ROI): +37%
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
