2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 13, 2022
Q2 Report
Q2 Report
Shifting to units to measure profits as the fictional bankroll confused a few folks. As for the unlucky college football outcomes, I blame the Queen! (Not much logic to that, but betting requires a few superstitions too:) Still, profits are profits, and the season remains profitable overall, and profitable in each sport overall, with a nice finish to week 1 in the NFL. I will do a separate livestream on two aspects of this past weekend: first, how the college football metrics from this week's games are actually quite promising; and the experience at the Texas and Cowboys games this past weekend. The livestream will also touch on how learning how to separate luck from predictable patterns is part of the mindset improvement the hobby of betting can provide. Can't wait for another weekend of football craziness!
Q2
INVESTMENT: 57 units
NET: -1.1 UNIT
ROI: -2%
YTD
INVESTMENT: 104 units
NET: +13.4 units
ROI: +27% (50-unit bankroll)
YTD BY SPORT
NCAAF: 60 picks; +1.6 units; +3% ROI
ATS: 24-22-1
Totals: 4-1
$L: 4.1-5
NFL: 26 picks; +4.7 units; +18% ROI
ATS: 6-6
Totals: 6-3
$L: 4.7-2
EPL: 18 picks; +7.1 units; +39% ROI
FAV: 4-1 +0.5 units
DOGS: 5-8 +6.6 units
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
