2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 16, 2022
Political Bet Recommendations: September 16, 2022
FYI: These are separate from the sports betting bankroll, and I see as completely independent investment pool.
https://www.predictit.org
Biden impeached by 6/30/23: YES 22% (take up to 40%)
GOP Senate Seats 52+: 33% (take up to 50%)
PA Senate GOP: 35% (take up to 50%)
PA Governor GOP: 26% (take up to 50%)
GOP House & Senate 2023: 37% (take up to 60%)
Arizona Senate GOP: 34% (take up to 50%)
Senate GOP: 39% (take up to 50%)
House GOP: 75% (take up to 90%)
New Hampshire Senate GOP: 17% (take up to 33%)
GOP Governors 30+: 28% (take up to 50%)
Nevada Senate GOP: 50% (take up to 65%)
Michigan Governor GOP: 17% (take up to 50%)
Ohio Senate GOP: 75% (take up to 95%)
Georgia Senate GOP: 48% (take up to 70%)
North Carolina Senate GOP: 70% (take up to 80%)
Wisconsin Senate GOP: 62% (take up to 80%)
Utah Senate GOP: 87% (take up to 97%)
Washington Senate GOP: 8% (take up to 25%)
Florida Governor GOP: 90% (take up to 95%)
Georgia Governor GOP: 82% (take up to 90%)
Arizona Governor GOP: 60% (take up to 75%)
Kansas Governor GOP: 56% (take up to 75%)
Wisconsin Governor GOP: 46% (take up to 60%)
Maine Governor GOP: 23% (take up to 40%)
Nevada Governor GOP: 44% (take up to 60%)
Putin President on 1/1/23: 85% (take up to 95%)
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...
