2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 16, 2022
Political Bet Recommendations: September 16, 2022
FYI: These are separate from the sports betting bankroll, and I see as completely independent investment pool.
https://www.predictit.org
Biden impeached by 6/30/23: YES 22% (take up to 40%)
GOP Senate Seats 52+: 33% (take up to 50%)
PA Senate GOP: 35% (take up to 50%)
PA Governor GOP: 26% (take up to 50%)
GOP House & Senate 2023: 37% (take up to 60%)
Arizona Senate GOP: 34% (take up to 50%)
Senate GOP: 39% (take up to 50%)
House GOP: 75% (take up to 90%)
New Hampshire Senate GOP: 17% (take up to 33%)
GOP Governors 30+: 28% (take up to 50%)
Nevada Senate GOP: 50% (take up to 65%)
Michigan Governor GOP: 17% (take up to 50%)
Ohio Senate GOP: 75% (take up to 95%)
Georgia Senate GOP: 48% (take up to 70%)
North Carolina Senate GOP: 70% (take up to 80%)
Wisconsin Senate GOP: 62% (take up to 80%)
Utah Senate GOP: 87% (take up to 97%)
Washington Senate GOP: 8% (take up to 25%)
Florida Governor GOP: 90% (take up to 95%)
Georgia Governor GOP: 82% (take up to 90%)
Arizona Governor GOP: 60% (take up to 75%)
Kansas Governor GOP: 56% (take up to 75%)
Wisconsin Governor GOP: 46% (take up to 60%)
Maine Governor GOP: 23% (take up to 40%)
Nevada Governor GOP: 44% (take up to 60%)
Putin President on 1/1/23: 85% (take up to 95%)
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Betting Psychology and Risk Management
This post is partially motivated by the incoming surge in official picks we are going to have as well as the dismay here some have experienced with the downturn we've had over the past few weeks. Risk-based moneymaking is not an easy pursuit and the vast majority of people who try their hand at it fail. It is important that you arm yourselves with as may tools as possible so that you will be in the profitable minority. Most people find it difficult enough to look at their investment portfolios during a relatively mild downturn, and that's with professional hedge fund managers doing insulating them from the very real challenges of risking our money and making a profit from it. Anyone who is active here is choosing to take that risk into their own hands. There are big rewards for this but also very big risks. This post is about preventing you from being taken out by those risk.
The primary way that we mount our offence us through our edge. A statistical...
