2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 16, 2022
Political Bet Recommendations: September 16, 2022
FYI: These are separate from the sports betting bankroll, and I see as completely independent investment pool.
https://www.predictit.org
Biden impeached by 6/30/23: YES 22% (take up to 40%)
GOP Senate Seats 52+: 33% (take up to 50%)
PA Senate GOP: 35% (take up to 50%)
PA Governor GOP: 26% (take up to 50%)
GOP House & Senate 2023: 37% (take up to 60%)
Arizona Senate GOP: 34% (take up to 50%)
Senate GOP: 39% (take up to 50%)
House GOP: 75% (take up to 90%)
New Hampshire Senate GOP: 17% (take up to 33%)
GOP Governors 30+: 28% (take up to 50%)
Nevada Senate GOP: 50% (take up to 65%)
Michigan Governor GOP: 17% (take up to 50%)
Ohio Senate GOP: 75% (take up to 95%)
Georgia Senate GOP: 48% (take up to 70%)
North Carolina Senate GOP: 70% (take up to 80%)
Wisconsin Senate GOP: 62% (take up to 80%)
Utah Senate GOP: 87% (take up to 97%)
Washington Senate GOP: 8% (take up to 25%)
Florida Governor GOP: 90% (take up to 95%)
Georgia Governor GOP: 82% (take up to 90%)
Arizona Governor GOP: 60% (take up to 75%)
Kansas Governor GOP: 56% (take up to 75%)
Wisconsin Governor GOP: 46% (take up to 60%)
Maine Governor GOP: 23% (take up to 40%)
Nevada Governor GOP: 44% (take up to 60%)
Putin President on 1/1/23: 85% (take up to 95%)
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
