2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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September 22, 2022
Barnes Betting Report: Thursday, September 22, 2022
This info is often helpful in my own analysis, and for others. This is a betting market report: the Squares represent the betting public favoring a particular bet by a large margin (historically, their bets lose money over time); the Sharps represent sports betters that Vegas bookies respect (historically, their bets make money over time); and the big line moves show where Vegas has dramatically shifted off their pre-season power ratings, which often reflect an over-reaction and "recency bias." This info is just FYI...
SQUARES (public betting favorites)
SYRACUSE
TCU
MICHIGAN
GEORGIA
E. MICHIGAN
UCLA
MEMPHIS
TEXAS
UNC
TOLEDO
UCF
OREGON
GA SOUTHERN
OLD DOMINION
UNLV
OHIO STATE
USC
UTAH
DUKE-KANSAS OVER
CLEMSON-WAKE OVER
BAYLOR-IOWA STATE OVER
BOWLING GREEN-MISS ST. OVER
MISSOURI-AUBURN UNDER
TEMPLE-UMASS UNDER
INDIANA-CINCINATTI OVER
GATECH-UCF UNDER
OREGON-WASH ST. OVER
RICE-HOUSTON OVER
AKRON-LIBERTY UNDER
ARK ST.-OLD DOMINION UNDER
SOUTHERN MISS-TULANE UNDER
IOWA-RUTGERS UNDER
MARSHALL-TROY UNDER
N ILL-KENTUCKY OVER
UNLV-UTAH ST. OVER
UCONN-NCST OVER
WISCONSIN-OHIO STATE OVER
HAWAII-NEW MEXICO ST. UNDER
USC-OREG ST. OVER
STANFORD-WASH OVER
VA TECH MONEYLINE
SYRACUSE MONEYLINE
TCU MONEYLINE
MICHIGAN MONEYLINE
DUKE MONEYLINE
CLEMSON MONEYLINE
S. FLORIDA MONEYLINE
AUBURN MONEYLINE
E. MICHIGAN MONEYLINE
UMASS MONEYLINE
MICHIGAN ST. MONEYLINE
TEXAS MONEYLINE
UNC MONEYLINE
JMU MONEYLINE
FLORIDA MONEYLINE
ARIZONA MONEYLINE
RUTGERS MONEYLINE
UTAH ST. MONEYLINE
ARKANSAS MONEYLINE
FAU MONEYLINE
OKLAHOMA MONEYLINE
HAWAII MONEYLINE
STEELERS
STEELERS MONEYLINE
RAVENS
RAVENS MONEYLINE
RAVENS-PATS OVER
CHIEFS
CHIEFS MONEYLINE
LIONS-VIKINGS OVER
LIONS MONEYLINE
PANTHERS MONEYLINE
TEXANS MONEYLINE
BILLS
BILLS-DOLPHINS OVER
BENGALS
BENGALS-JETS OVER
TITANS MONEYLINE
PACKERS MONEYLINE
FALCONS
FALCONS MONEYLINE
49ERS
49ERS MONEYLINE
COWBOYS MONEYLINE
SHARPS (counter-public odds moves)
DUKE
IOWA STATE
MISS. STATE
MISSOURI
N. TEXAS
TENNESSEE
W. KENTUCKY
NAVY
TROY
NEW MEXICO ST.
UL MONROE
OREGON ST.
NEVADA-AIR FORCE UNDER
CLEMSON-WAKE UNDER
SFL-LOUISVILLE OVER
BAYLOR-IA STATE UNDER
BOWLING GREEN-MISS ST. UNDER
NORTH TEXAS-MEMPHIS OVER
NOTRE DAME-UNC UNDER
ARIZONA-CAL OVER
RICE-HOUSTON UNDER
BALL ST.-GA SOUTHERN OVER
ARKANSAS-A&M UNDER
NEW MEXICO-LSU UNDER
VANDY-ALABAMA UNDER
UTAH-ARIZONA ST. OVER
BROWNS
BROWNS MONEYLINE
CHIEFS-COLTS UNDER
SAINTS
SAINTS MONEYLINE
SAINTS-PANTHERS UNDER
TEXANS-BEARS OVER
BEARS MONEYLINE
EAGLES-COMMANDERS UNDER
RAIDERS
RAIDERS-TITANS UNDER
RAIDERS MONEYLINE
CHARGERS
PACKERS
RAMS
RAMS-CRADINALS UNDER
GIANTS
GIANTS MONEYLINE
PRE-SEASON LINE MOVES (teams that saw line move against them of +3 or more)
VIRGINIA
NEVADA
CENTRAL MICH
CLEMSON
KENT ST.
INDIANA
NOTRE DAME
FLORDIA
SAN DIEGO ST.
FIU
GA TECH
A&M
WISCONSIN
VANDY
ARIZONA ST.
STANFORD
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00:55:38
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...
