Ask in replies, and live at 10ish eastern tonight...discussing a few games I passed on like Oklahoma, Alabama, and Kentucky, as well as some of the highlights from the Barnes Betting report below and explicating what it means and how I use the information contained therein, and why I don't bet parlays much...
Barnes Betting Report
Survivor NFL Pick: Saints
SMART $
UCLA
SDST-BOISE UNDER
NEW MEXICO
NEW MEXICO-UNLV UNDER
MICHIGAN-IOWA UNDER
PURDUE-MINNESOTA OVER
GAST-ARMY UNDER
OLE MISS
NAVY
UTAH
MARYLAND
MICHST-MARYLAND OVER
VAT-UNC UNDER
FLORIDA STATE
ALABAMA
ALABAMA-ARKANSAS UNDER
CAL-WASHST OVER
CHARLOTTE
TROY
NEBRASKA
UAB-RICE UNDER
SMU
COMMANDERS
TITANS-COLTS UNDER
FALCONS
JETS-STEELERS OVER
JAGS-EAGLES UNDER
SEATTLE-LIONS OVER
TEXANS
CHARGERS-TEXANS UNDER
CARDINALS-PANTHERS UNDER
PANTHERS
SQUARE $
HOUSTON
UTSA
WASHINGTON
KENTUCKY
MINNESOTA
OKLAHOMA
ILLINOIS
ILLINOIS-WISCONSIN UNDER
ARMY
KENTUCKY-OLE MISS UNDER
OREGONST-UTAH UNDER
E MICHIGAN
E. CAROLINA
MICHST-MARYLAND UNDER
IOWA ST-KANSAS OVER
RUTGERS
OKST-BAYLOR OVER
WAKE-FLORIDA STATE OVER
ALABAMA-ARKANSAS OVER
BOWLING GREEN
BUFFALO
MISS. ST
TEXAS A&M-MISS ST. UNDER
FAU
S.ALA-ULL UNDER
LIBERTY
CINCINATTI-TULSA OVER
WEST VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA-TEXAS OVER
NCST-CLEMSON OVER
DUKE
GEORGIA
UAB-RICE OVER
FIU-NEW MEXICO STATE UNDER
COLORADO-ARIZONA UNDER
COLORADO
BYU
OREGON
VIKINGS
COWBOYS
BROWNS-FALCONS OVER
JETS-STEELERS UNDER
STEELERS
COWBOYS-COMMANDERS UNDER
CARDINALS
BEARS-GIANTS UNDER
PATS-PACKERS UNDER
BRONCOS-RAIDERS UNDER
CHIEFS
RAMS
4-0 ATS
OREGST
TCU
SMS
MN
ARKST
UNLV
WASH
KAN
JMU
SALA
0-4 ATS
COL
AUB
FIU
NEB
UTST
COLST
BC
DD DOGS UNDER 44
NMEX
IOWA
NAVY
DD DOGS HOME TV
IOWA
ARKANSAS
MISSOURI
BUY LOW
WISCONSIN
UNC
UTST
TEXAS
ASU
STANFORD
SELL HIGH
RUTGERS
OKST
UCLA
PURDUE
IOWA ST
TROY
PUBLIC DISLIKED HOME DOGS
MTSU
UCLA
IOWA
TCU
BALL ST
SFL
AKRON
UCONN
NTX
CHAR
OD
MO
PUBLIC OVERS
UTSA-MTSU
KY-MS
IOST-KS
RUTG-OHST
OKST-BAY
VAT-UNC
CIN-TULSA
WVA-TX
SJST-WYO
UAB-RICE
STAN-OREG
PUBLIC UNDERS
CAL-WASHST
GASTH-CCAR
MICHST-MD
ORST-UTAH
IL-WIS
TT-KST
PUR-MN
MICH-IO
UTST-BYU
LOSS VS. WIN
BUF
WASH
NYG
ARI
NE
SF
Big Sharp Handicapper Picks
KC
SF
Browns OVER 46.5
BUCS UNDER 46.5
RAIDERS UNDER 45.5
SF UNDER 46
JAX OVER 47
ATL +3
San Diego State
ANY PICKS MADE IN THIS SHOW ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"
START TIME - 8:00 AM EST
🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥
Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥
Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):
1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121
• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET
2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200
• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-420) — CIN @ NYY 1:36 PM ET
• Logan Webb 4+ Strikeouts (-900) — SF Giants @ MIA Marlins 1:41 PM ET
• Dustin May 4+ Strikeouts (-500) — STL Cardinals @ KC Royals 2:11 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-300) — BOS @ SEA 4:11 PM ET
Single Bet
• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
#MLBProps #StrikeoutBets #DegenerateMode 🤑⚾
First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.
Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.