2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
80% Chance These House Seats Flip
(From most likely to less likely)
AZ2
FL13
WI3
FL7
GA6
MI10
TN5
MI8
PA7
RI2
AZ6
IA3
MN2
NH1
NY19
OH13
PA8
TX15
IL17
NC13
NJ7
PA17
VA2
AK
CA49
CT5
IN1
ME2
MN2
NV1
NV3
NY17
OH13
OR5
VA7
WA8
KS3
NY3
NY4
NY18
OH9
OR4
TX28
MT1
AZ4
CO7
CT2
GA2
IL6
IL14
MD6
NC1
NJ3
NM3
New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...