Recommended Picks Thanksgiving Week, 2022

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

November 22, 2022

Recommended Picks Thanksgiving Week, 2022

The 12th betting quarter of the year.

WORLD CUP (1% max recommended)
WEDNESDAY
CROATIA-MOROCCO OVER 2 ½ +130 (down to +100)
MOROCCO +155 CROATIA (Tie no Bet; if no such option, Morocco +270)
GERMANY -220 JAPAN (up to -300)
COSTA RICA-SPAIN UNDER 2 ½ +125 (down to +100)

THURSDAY
CAMEROON-SWITZERLAND OVER 2 ½ +120 (down to -110)
GHANA-PORTUGAL OVER 2 ½ (up to -150)
GHANA +600 PORTUGAL (tie no bet; or take +750 on $line)
SERBIA-BRAZIL OVER 2 ½ -130 (up to -150)
BRAZIL -220 SERBIA (up to -400)
URUGUAY -130 SOUTH KOREA (up to -150)
WALES +105 IRAN (up to -150)

FRIDAY
SENEGAL -165 QATAR (up to -200)
NETHERLANDS -130 ECUADOR (up to -200)
ENGLAND-USA OVER 2 ½ (up to -130)
AUSTRALIA +160 TUNISIA (tie no bet; or Australia +250)

SATURDAY
POLAND -135 SAUDI ARABIA (up to -170)
POLAND-SAUDI ARABIA UNDER 2 ½ -130 (up to -150)
ARGENTINA -180 MEXICO (up to -200)
JAPAN-COSTA RICA UNDER 2 ½ -150 (up to -170)

SUNDAY
BELGIUM-MOROCCO OVER 2 ½ (up to -130)
CANADA-CROATIA OVER 2 ½ (up to -120)
SPAIN-GERMANY DRAW +230 (down to +220)
SPAIN-GERMANY OVER 2 ½ (up to -130)

NCAAF
FRIDAY
CINCINATTI -2 TULANE (up to 4)
CINCINATTI -125 TULANE (up to -140)
NEBRASKA +11 IOWA (down to 10)
CAL +10 ½ UCLA (down to 10)
FLORIDA +9 ½ FLORIDA ST. (down to 7)
FLORIDA +295 FSU (down to +200)
FLORIDA-FSU OVER 57 ½ (up to 59)

SATURDAY
NOON
OHST -7 ½ MICHIGAN (up to 10)

3PM
KENTUCKY -2 ½ LOUISVILLE (up to 4)
DUKE-WAKE FOREST UNDER 67 (down to 64)
WISCONSIN -3 MINNESOTA (up to 4)
OREGON -3 OREGON ST. (up to 6)
OREGON -150 OREGON ST. (up to -180)
IOWA ST. +10 TCU (down to 7)
INDIANA +10 ½ PURDUE (down to 10)

7 PM
TEXAS A&M +10 LSU (down to 7)
TEXAS A&M +285 LSU (down to +200)
BOSTON COLLEGE +10 ½ SYRACUSE (down to 10)
OKLAHOMA -2 TEXAS TECH (up to 4)
OKLAHOMA -130 TEXAS TECH (up to -160)
OKLAHOMA-TEXAS TECH UNDER 64 ½ (down to 63)
TENNESSEE -14 VANDY (up to 16)
TENNESSEE-VANDY UNDER 64 ½ (down to 62)
KANSAS +12 KANSAS ST. (down to 10)
MIAMI +7 PITT (down to 4)
MIAMI +220 PITT (down to +200)

LONGSHOTS (1% max recommended)
CAL +310 UCLA (down to +300)
NEBRASKA +340 (down to +300)
INDIANA +320 (down to +300)
BOSTON COLLEGE +350 (down to +300)
KANSAS +360 (down to +300)
IOWA STATE +330 (down to +300)

NFL
THURSDAY
LIONS +9 ½ BILLS
LIONS-BILLS UNDER 54 ½

SUNDAY
1 PM
JAGS +4 RAVENS
JAGS +170 RAVENS
RAVENS-JAGS OVER 43 ½
BROWNS +3 ½ TAMPA
BROWNS +155 TAMPA
BROWNS-TAMPA OVER 42 ½
TITANS +2 ½ BENAGALS
BENGALS-TITANS OVER 42 ½
TEXANS +13 DOLPHINS
FALCONS +4 COMMANDERS
FALCONS +175 COMMANDERS
BRONCOS-PANTHERS OVER 35

4 PM
CARDINALS +4 ½ CHARGERS
CARDINALS +175 CHARGERS
RAMS-CHIEFS OVER 44
RAMS +15 CHIEFS

8 PM
PACKERS +7 EAGLES
PACKERS +250 EAGLES

LONGSHOT (1% Max Recommended)
LIONS +350 (down to +300)

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2% REDS 50% Dbacks
2% ROYALS 50% Astros

WORLD CUP
2% USA 48% Paraguay

ALL OK at 55% or less

Live Chat

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 18, 2026

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

Jamie Donnelly@seimiodonnghaile

6 hours ago

World Cup Group B - My Pick

1% Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina to draw at 27c
OR
1% Canada not to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina at 46c
OR
Some combination of the above

I'm going to keep this super brief as my wife's parents are visiting and as they are Bosnian we will be cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight. Basically what this comes down to is how close Bosnia will be able to keep the game against a Canada team that is technically very strong but can struggle to convert possession dominance into goals. We have seen this over quite a few friendlies where they just haven't quite had that cutting edge to put teams away. They face a Bosnian team that qualified via the European playoffs and beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.

Bosnia have been doing better under Sergej Barbarez who took an underperforming team with some ego issues and built a team with a tough defence but with young attacking talent coming through. What is notable is they don't panic when they go behind. They...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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