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Crick's Picks: NFL Week 17

These are not Sportspicks "Recommended Picks"

What's up guy's?!?!? I gotta apologize, I wasn't able to get a video done for you folks for these picks, but I still wanted to make sure and get em out to ya. So this is what I'm going with this weekend...

1.) Broncos+12.5 @ Chiefs

2.) Colts/Giants UNDER 39

3.) Eagles -5.5 vs Saints

4.) Lions -6 vs Bears

5.) Cardinals/Falcons UNDER 41

6.) Seahawks +1.5 vs Jets

7.) Vikings +3 @ Packers

8.) Ravens/Steelers UNDER 35

9.) Bengals +1 vs Bills

Preferred Prop Bets for Week 17

49ers vs Raiders

  • Jarrett Stidham UNDER 224.5 Passing -170

  • Davante Adams UNDER 74.5 Receiving -195

Eagles vs Saints

  • Gardner Minshew OVER 224.5 Passing -150

  • Juwan Johnson UNDER 34.5 Receiving -165

  • Alvin Kamara 15+ Receiving (Alternate Total) -200

Chiefs vs Broncos

  • Latavius Murray UNDER 49.5 Rushing -160

  • Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 Receiving -135

  • Jerick McKinnon OVER 39.5 Receiving +125

Commanders vs Browns

  • Terry McLaurin Anytime TD +145

  • Deshaun Watson UNDER 244.5 Passing -200

  • Amari Cooper UNDER 69.5 Receiving -190

Lions vs Bears

  • D'Andre Swift Anytime TD +130

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 79.5 Receiving -130

Packers vs Vikings

  • Aaron Jones Anytime TD +105

  • Aaron Jones OVER 24.5 Receiving +125

  • Adam Thielen OVER 39.5 Receiving -140

Bengals vs Bills

  • Joe Burrow OVER 274.5 Passing -140

  • Josh Allen OVER 249.5 Passing -130

Good Luck!! Hope y'all CRUSH EM!!!!

-Crickett

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LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

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MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy
2 hours ago

🔥 August 14, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Night slate locked… with a couple notes.

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: -106

• Chase Burns 5+ Strikeouts (-620) — MIA Marlins @ CIN Reds 6:11 PM ET
⚠️ Red Flag: Weather concerns + pitch count being closely watched (young arm)

• Gavin Williams 6+ Strikeouts (-400) — SD Padres @ CLE Guardians 7:11 PM ET

• Chris Sale 6+ Strikeouts (-295) — ARI Diamondbacks @ ATL Braves 7:16 PM ET

2. Straight Bet

• Gavin Williams Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+124) — SD @ CLE 7:11 PM ET

⚠️ Note: Strikeout teasers have been cold the last week. Proceed carefully.

#MLBProps #StrikeoutBets #DegenerateMode 🤑⚾

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MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy
1 hour ago

Full Straight-Prop Analysis

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Top 3 where qualified):

1. Gavin Williams (CLE vs SDP) – Elite Tier (11.51 K/9, 32% K%, last starts routinely 10–12 Ks, elite efficiency). Smart weighting ~68/32 or better vs solid SO/G side. High Workload Bonus eligible. Strongest pure projected xK on the slate.

2. Chris Sale (ATL vs ARI) – Elite Tier (11.05 K/9, elite command/SwStr profile, recent 8–11 Ks). Locked Elite. Faces softer SO/G but still projects top-tier volume.

3. Chase Burns (CIN vs MIA) – Elite/Strong border (10.38 K/9, 28% K%). Last-5 mixed (recent 6/9/4/6/2) but season form + stuff keep him elevated. Weather Red Flag lowers full main-line conviction; still protected for ranking/teasers with alt preference.

4. Gerrit Cole (NYY @ TOR) – Strong (9.71 K/9, recent form surge with 9/5/7/11/8 Ks, excellent K-BB). Faces low SO/G TOR Home (7.40) ...

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
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First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
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