2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 03, 2023
Quarterly Report
Santa came on Christmas, but the Grinch visited Christmas Eve and New Years Eve each, bitter over our season's successes. Now time to lock in a profitable playoffs for the NFL, bring back EPL bets, and start sprinkling in NBA and College Basketball options, along with the free picks from the guest handicappers on the site. Back-to-back winning seasons in 3 sports for the fall is still a relative rarity in the handicapping world.
Q14 2022
RISKED: 54 units
NET: -10 units
YTD 2022
INVESTMENT (BANKROLL): 50 units
RISKED: 896 units
NET: +23 units
PROFIT (ROI): +46%
YTD By Sport
NFL: 330 picks; +0 units
NCAAF: 464 picks; +15 units
SOCCER: 81 picks; +8 units
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
