Crick's Corner: NFL Divisional Round Chiefs vs Jaguars Preview

January 20, 2023

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Jaguars vs Chiefs

4:30 PM EST Saturday

How They Got Here

Jacksonville:

The Jags trailed 27-0 in the 2nd quarter, and were down 27-7 at the half in the Wild-Card Round vs the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence had one of the worst halves in post-season history, when he became just the 3rd QB in the Super Bowl Era to throw 4 INT's in the first half of a playoff game. However, in the 2nd Half, Lawrence engineered the greatest comeback in franchise history and the 3rd largest comeback in NFL Playoff history. Riley Patterson's 36-yard field goal, as time expired, gave Jacksonville the improbable 31-30 victory. They became the first team to ever win a playoff game with a turnover differential of minus-five or worse. Teams with that turnover deficit had been 0-19 in the Super Bowl Era.

Kansas City:

The Chiefs come into this game as the #1 seed in the AFC, after finishing the regular season 14-3. They received the coveted first round bye, and watched the Wild-Card games from their couches. They have won 5 games in a row, and 10 of their last 11. Kansas City boasts the best offense in the league, averaging 413.6 yards and 29.2 points per game. They are trying to make it to their 5th consecutive AFC Championship game. They have gone 2-2 on Championship Weekend the last 4 years, but none of that will matter if they can't find a way to get by Lawrence and the Jaguars this weekend.

By The Numbers

Jacksonville:

In the Wild-Card round vs the Chargers, Trevor Lawrence was 28 of 47 for 288 yards with 4 TD's and 4 INT's. Orchestrating one of the most remarkable half-to-half turnarounds in post-season history. Lawrence had three different receivers with 7+ catches. Evan Engram had 7 catches for 93 yards and a TD. Christian Kirk had 8 catches for 78 yards and a TD, and Zay Jones added 8 catches for 74 yards and another touchdown. Travis Etienne Jr. led the Jags in rushing, grinding out 109 yards on 20 carries. Marvin Jones Jr. also had 3 catches for 29 yards and a TD as well.

Kansas City:

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 5,250 yards with 41 TD's and 12 INT's, while completing 67.1% of his passes. Isiah Pacheco leads the Chiefs in rushing with 830 yards on 170 carries(4.9 ypc) and 5 TD's since taking over the starting job from Clyde Edwards-Helaire mid-season. Travis Kelce leads Kansas City in receiving, catching 110 balls for 1,338 yards and 12 TD's. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling have also been key contributors on offense throughout this season as well. Smith-Schuster has 78 catches for 933 yards and 3 TD's, while Valdes-Scantling has 42 receptions for 687 yards and a pair of TD's. Jerick McKinnon has also burst onto the scene, late in the season, catching 56 balls for 512 yards and 9 TD's out of the backfield. McKinnon has at least one receiving TD in six consecutive games.

Key Match-Up

Patrick Mahomes vs Jaguars Pass Defense

Jacksonville had the 28th ranked pass defense in the NFL in 2022, allowing 238.5 yards per game through the air. They also gave up 25 passing TD's (19th) this season. Kansas City has the best passing offense in the league (297.8 ypg), and also led the league in passing TD's (41). The Jags fared decently in the Wild-Card round against the Chargers' Justin Herbert, sacking him 3 times and allowing only one TD through the air. However, they did give up 273 yards passing in that contest. As good as Herbert is, he is not Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs offense is much more consistent and efficient than the Chargers, and if Jacksonville finds themselves in a hole similar to last weeks, Mahomes and Co. won't take their foot off the gas the way Los Angeles did. It will be critical for the Jaguars to get to Mahomes early and force him into uncomfortable situations. If they allow him to settle into a rhythm early, he will pick the Jags secondary apart the way he did in their regular season match-up back in November. The Chiefs won that game 27-17.

From A Gambling Standpoint

Jaguars:

In 2022, Jacksonville was 9-8-0 ATS (5-3-0 Home, 4-5-0 Away). As for Totals, the Over hit 8 times and the Under hit 9 times in Jaguar contests this season.
Head Coach Doug Pederson is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 outright as a playoff underdog in his career.

Chiefs:

This season the Chiefs were 6-11-0 ATS (2-6-0 Home, 4-5-0 Away). With Totals, the Over hit 8 times while the Under hit 9 times. Identical numbers to Jacksonville's "Totals".

Trends

Prediction

The Jaguars pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL Playoff history last week, and have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the last month or so of the season. They're a scrappy bunch who never seems to be out of any game they're playing in. They always fight for 4 quarters and play till the very last whistle. However, they've dug themselves into some BIG holes in certain games this season. Some of those games they were able to battle back and prevail, but in the other games it seemed like it was almost over before it started. I see the Chiefs jumping out big early in this one and leading by at least 10 points at the half. Much like their Head Coach, however, this Jacksonville team will continue to battle for the entirety of the game and give themselves a chance late in this one. This time though, it will be too little too late for the Jags, as their comeback bid will come up just short, and Mahomes and the boys will salt this one away down the stretch and move on to their 5th consecutive AFC Championship Game.

Final Score: Kansas City 27 Jacksonville 20

Good Luck this Weekend!!!!

-Crickett