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Giants vs Eagles

8:15 PM EST Saturday

How They Got Here

New York:

• The Giants have been a pleasant surprise all season long, highly outperforming pre-season expectations. New York went 9-7-1 in the regular season, securing the #6 seed in the NFC Playoffs. That set up a Wild-Card match-up at the Minnesota Vikings. In that game, Daniel Jones became the first QB in NFL history to throw for 300+ yards and 2+ TD's while also rushing for 70+ yards. He was 24 of 35 for 301 yards and 2 TD's and had 17 carries for 78 yards in New York's 31-24 win. Saquon Barkley added 53 yards on 9 carries with 2 TD's on the ground while catching 5 passes for an additional 56 yards. Isaiah Hodgins led the Giants in receiving with 8 catches for 105 yards and a TD. Darius Slayton also added 4 receptions for 88 yards vs Minnesota.

Philadelphia:

• The Eagles finished the regular season 14-3, and secured the #1 seed and first round bye in the NFC Playoffs. They defeated the Giants twice in the regular season, including a 22-16 win in Philly in Week 18. A win that locked up the #1 seed, as well as the NFC East Title. There are major questions surrounding QB Jalen Hurts and his health entering the playoffs. For the last month, Hurts has been nursing a shoulder injury that caused him to miss two games. The Eagles lost both games in which Hurts was sidelined. He's the best player on an ultra-talented team, but if he has to come out of a game for any reason, this team takes a MAJOR step back.

By The Numbers

New York:

• New York was excellent in the Red-Zone on both sides of the ball this season. They scored TD's on 63.3% (7th) of their trips to the Red-Zone, while allowing TD's on just 49.2% (5th) of opponent drives that reached the scoring area. The defense was exceptional on 3rd downs, with an opponent 3rd Down conversion rate of just 35.1%. However, they struggled mightily on 4th Downs on the defensive side of the ball. Opponents converted 4th Downs on 64.7% of their attempts against the Giants in 2022.

Philadelphia:

• The Eagles were top-tier on both sides of the ball in 2022. On Offense, they ranked 3rd in the league in points scored (28.1 ppg) and 3rd in yards gained (389.1 ypg). On Defense, they were 8th in points allowed (20.2 ppg), and 2nd in yards allowed (301.5 ypg). They've only turned the ball over on offense 19 times (4th), while forcing 27 takeaways (5th) on defense. The Eagles have the most rushing TD's in the league in 2022 with 32. Philadelphia's offense is also Top 5 in 3rd conversion rate (45.9%, 4th) and 4th down conversion rate (68.8%, 4th).

Key Match-Up

Daniel Jones vs The Eagles Secondary

• Philadelphia's defense allowed the fewest pass yards per game in the NFL in 2022 (178.9 ypg). They were also #1 in opponent net yards per attempt (4.9). Jones threw for 3,205 yards with 15 TD's and 5 INT's in the regular season which is certainly respectable, but isn't on an elite level by any means. However, last week vs the Vikings in the Wild-Card Round, Jones threw for 301 yards and 2 TD's. Looking like the top-shelf QB the Giants drafted him to be. If New York is going to have a chance in this one, they'll need their signal-caller clicking on all cylinders the way he was last week in Minnesota. If he struggles, I don't believe the Giants defense can slow the Eagles offense down enough to keep them in this one.

From a Gambling Standpoint

New York:

• New York is 14-4 ATS in 2022 (6-3-0 Home, 8-1-0 Away). The Over has hit in Giants games 8 times, while the Under has hit 9 times with 1 Push on "Totals" this season.

• New York is 17-5 ATS and 14-8 outright as a playoff underdog in the Super Bowl Era.

Philadelphia:

• The Eagles are 8-9 ATS in 2022 (6-3-0 Home, 2-6-0 Away). As for Totals, the Over has hit 10 times, while the Under has hit 7 times in Philadelphia games this season.

Trends

• Giants are 5-0 ATS in last 5 games overall.

• Giants are 5-0 ATS in last 5 Saturday Games.

• Giants are 5-0 ATS in last 5 Road Games.

• Giants are 10-2 ATS in last 12 Playoff Games.

• Giants are 10-1 ATS in last 11 Road Playoff Games.

• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in last 5 Divisional Playoff Games.

• Eagles are 0-4 ATS in last 4 Games overall.

• Eagles are 0-5 ATS in last 5 Games in January.

• Eagles are 1-5 ATS in last 6 Saturday Games.

• Eagles are 5-2 ATS in last 7 Playoff Games.

• Road Team is 7-3 ATS in last 10 Heads-Up Meetings.

• Under is 4-1 in last 5 meetings in Philadelphia in this series.

• Giants are 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

Prediction

• This game, to me, boils down to the health of Jalen Hurts. If he can play the entire game, and at the MVP-caliber level that he has played at all season, I'm not sure the Giants defense will be able to stop the Eagles enough on offense to win this one. However, Hurts has struggled vs the Giants in his career, more so than any other opponent that he has faced multiple times. If Daniel Jones can put up another performance like he had last week vs the Vikings, it puts this Giants offense on another level. I believe this one is going to be a hard-hitting, smash-mouth football game, with multiple lead changes throughout. I think the difference in this one will be New York's fantastic Red-Zone defense that has kept them in games that they didn't belong all season. They get a late Red-Zone stop to keep them in it, and Danny Dimes leads a "Drive for the Ages" to win this in the final minutes!!

Final Score: New York 24 Philadelphia 23

Enjoy the Game!!!!

-Crickett