Crick's Picks: College Basketball 2/25/23

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

February 25, 2023

These are not Sportspicks "Recommended Picks"

2/24/23 Results

5-3 ATS
1-3 ML's Parlay Lost
No "Longshot"
No "Game of the Night"

Game of the Night

#17 Indiana vs #5 Purdue

Location: Mackey Arena - West Lafayette, Indiana
Tip-Off: 7:30 PM EST

Tale of the Tape

Purdue / Indiana

FGA - 55.4 pg / 57.9 pg
FG% - 46.4% / 49.2%
2P% - 54.4% / 53.4%
3P% - 33.5% / 38.0%
FTA - 19.8 pg / 17.6 pg
FT% - 75.8% / 71.0%
EFG% - 52.8% / 54.4%
DReb% - 76.9% / 73.4%
OReb% - 38.1% / 29.5%
TO's - 11.2 pg / 12.2 pg
Fouls - 13.5 pg / 17.1 pg
Adj Off Eff- 119.1 / 115.0
Adj Def Eff- 93.7 / 97.3
PPG - 73.5 / 75.4
PAG - 61.6 / 67.4
% FGA in Paint - 32.9% / 41.5%

Overview

We're coming down the "Homestretch" of the NCAAM College Basketball season, and it's time to start looking at some of the teams we truly believe can cut the nets down in Houston. When you talk about the best teams in the country, the Big Ten is ALWAYS somewhere in that conversation. The Big Ten in Basketball, is a lot like the SEC in Football. What I mean by that is, it's tough to tell how good some of these teams are because the competition throughout the league is so strong. Of the 14 teams in the league, 11 have a realistic shot at making the tournament. Now that doesn't mean all 11 will make it, but it should be a testament of just how good this conference is, top to bottom. Even in a "Down" year for the conference, they'll still send 7+ teams to the Dance. Tomorrow night, we'll get to see the type of match-up that makes the Big Ten so much fun to watch. A rivalry game with not only HUGE bragging rights, but major post-season implications on the line. Purdue has, all but locked up the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tourney, however, the Hoosiers have plenty to play for. They're deadlocked in a 4-way tie for third place (Illinois , Maryland , Michigan) at 10-7 in conference play, and just one game behind second place Northwestern (11-6). The Boilermakers have the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament in their sights, so they won't go quietly for their interstate foe. With so much on the line, it should be a lot of fun in Big Ten Country on Saturday Night.

Match-Up

Purdue comes into this contest having lost 3 of their last 5 games, after starting the season 22-1. One of those three losses, was a 79-74 setback at Indiana on February 4th. In those losses, the Boilermakers have really looked out of sync on the offensive end at times. They're led by their "Player of the Year" candidate Zach Edey (22.1 ppg , 12.7 rpg) who averages a double-double, and blocks 2+ shots a game. He's a dominant force down low, and at 7'4" is a mismatch nightmare for basically anyone. Head Coach Matt Painter's back-court is ran by a pair of Freshman Guards, Fletcher Loyer (11.8 ppg , 2.5 apg) and Braden Smith (10.0 ppg , 4.3 rpg , 4.3 apg , 1.2 spg), who are playing with a maturity and basketball IQ well beyond their years. Painter isn't afraid to put the ball in their hands in "Big Time" moments. The Boilermakers have a deep bench that provides plenty of production as well. Painter uses as many as 10 or 11 guy's, on any given night in his rotation, allowing his players to stay fresh throughout. The majority of Purdue's offensive struggles have come on the road this season, but they'll be back in the friendly confines of Mackey Arena on Saturday Night where they've been almost unbeatable this season. Painter's guy's got back on the right track, with an 82-55 win over visiting Ohio State in their last game, following a two game skid. However, their offensive struggles have been well-noted, and if Edey finds himself in early foul trouble it totally changes the dynamic of this offense.
Indiana comes into this one after losing 2 of their last 3 games. However, before that they had won 8 of 9, including a victory over then #1 Purdue. Head Coach Mike Woodson has one of the best all-around players in the country in Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.5 ppg , 11.1 rpg , 3.6 apg , 2.9 bpg), and he needs a good showing in this one to make his claim for Big Ten Player of the Year. Freshman Guard Jalen Hood-Schifino is averaging 12.8 ppg, to go along with 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game. Veteran Guards, Xavier Johnson (9.9 ppg , 4.9 apg , 3.3 rpg , 1.2 spg) and Trey Galloway (7.1 ppg , 50.0% 3Point) help provide strong leadership in the backcourt, and Senior Forwards Miller Kopp (8.0 ppg , 46.8% 3Point) and Race Thompson (7.8 ppg , 5.0 rpg , 1.0 bpg) help provide a strong inside-out presence on both ends of the floor. The Hoosiers have been a streaky team, at times this season, and will face possibly their most hostile road environment to date on Saturday. Even with a roster littered with experience, they haven't shown the ability to "rise to the occasion" in tough spots on the road so far this year. With their toughest test of the season looming on the horizon, they'll HAVE to be efficient with the basketball and take advantage of open looks from downtown. If they don't shoot it well from deep, I think Purdue's "Bigs" will win the battle in the paint and eliminate second-chance opportunities for the Hoosiers. To beat the Boilermakers in their house, shooting it well from 3 is almost a must.

Prediction

Indiana defeated Purdue 79-74 inside of Assembly Hall earlier this season. The Hoosiers shot 52.6 % from the field, against a defense that had held 24 consecutive opponents under 70 points, and forced 16 turnovers in that contest. Trayce Jackson-Davis had 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 blocks, becoming the first player to have 25+ points and 5+ blocks vs the #1 team since Marcus Camby in 1995. However, Indiana nearly blew a 16-point lead down the stretch. Purdue has been much more efficient, on both ends, at home this season and I don't see Indiana shooting it near as well in this game as they did in the earlier meeting. I look for Zach Edey (33 points , 18 rebounds 1st meeting) to establish a strong presence in the paint early on, on his way to another HUGE game!! I think he solidifies himself as the Big Ten POY, and assures himself as a Wooden Award Finalist after this one. I, honestly, don't see this one being very competitive for much of the 2nd half. I believe the Boilermakers build a comfortable halftime lead, and are able to control the game at their tempo down the stretch. Indiana is a very good Basketball team, who could make a deep run in March, but going on the road to face one of the top teams in the country will be too much for Mike Woodson's squad on this night.

My Pick: Purdue -7.5

Final Score: Purdue 81 Indiana 66

Crick's Picks 2/25/23