Crick's Picks: College Basketball 3/4/23

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

March 04, 2023

Crick's Picks: College Basketball 3/4/23

These are not Sportspicks "Recommended Picks"

3/3/23 Results

9-3-1 ATS
5-2 ML's Parlay Lost
0-1 "Longshot" VALIANT EFFORT ECU!!
No "Game of the Night" Pick

Game of the Night

#8 Arizona vs #4 UCLA

Location: Pauley Pavilion - Los Angeles, California

Tip-Off: 10:00 PM EST

Line: UCLA -5 O/U 148

Overview

The Pac 12, this season, is probably the most unpredictable conference in all the land. There are teams completely capable of winning the National Championship, but those same teams are just as capable of losing at home when they're a double-digit favorite. If you've spent a lot of time gambling on this particular conference this year... Chances are, you've spent A LOT of time frustrated. Teams in this league have the ability to look like a "Sweet 16" team one night, and look completely incapable of winning a home NIT game the next. The BEST teams in this league, can compete with ANYONE in the country. However, those same teams can also look average, at best, on any given night. The top two teams in the Pac 12 will square off on Saturday night in the "City of Angels", in what WILL be a "Final Four" type atmosphere. Both of these squads are LEGITIMATE contenders to bring home the Naismith Trophy. The Bruins have already locked up the regular-season Pac 12 Title, but that doesn't mean Saturday Night's contest is meaningless. These are two of the more successful programs in College Basketball history. So anytime they're on the floor together, it's an entertaining show. Tomorrow night you may be watching two teams that could make the National Semi-Finals, but may also bow out of the tourney before the second weekend.

Matchup

Arizona comes into this contest, after a hard-fought road victory over a very solid USC Trojan's team (87-81). The Wildcats have been one of the top teams in the country all season long, and are LEGITE National Championship contenders. With five players averaging double-digits in scoring, Zona has one of the top offenses in ALL of College Basketball. They are led by Junior Forward Azuolas Tubelis (19.7 ppg , 9.1 rpg , 1.1 spg) who is as good as anyone in the country. Junior Center Oumar Ballo (14.2 ppg , 8.7 rpg) is an absolute force in the paint, and a matchup nightmare for 99% of teams the Cats will face. Senior Guards Courtney Ramey (11.0 ppg , 3.9 rpg , 3.7 apg , 1.1 spg) and Cedric Henderson Jr. (8.0 ppg , 3.6 rpg , 41.6 3P%) are the real journeyman of this group, and provide high-quality leadership for Head Coach Tommy Lloyd's group. Junior Guards Kerr Kriisa (10.6 ppg , 5.4 apg) Pelle Larsson (10.2 ppg , 4.3 rpg , 3.0 apg) are great players in their own right, and are key pieces to Arizona's success. The Wildcats could very well be one of the 4 teams left standing in Houston, but have also shown the ability to underperform against a much-lesser opponent. I think they'll be plenty ready to go on Saturday Night in LA, but will they have that same type of energy when they're heavy favorites in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament? They haven't shown that "Killer Instinct" against lesser opponents at times this season, and it's come back to haunt them in spots... Just watch the highlights of last Saturday's game vs Arizona State. If they play to their skill-level, Arizona can run away from ANYONE in the country. However, their ability to close out games against teams that shouldn't be in said game to begin with, is awfully alarming.
UCLA comes into this one on a 9-game winning streak, and have risen to #4 in the current AP Poll. They've already locked up the regular-season Pac 12 Championship and will be the #1 seed in the upcoming tourney. The "Top Dog" on this squad is one of the best all-around players in the ENTIRE country. Senior Guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. (17.3 ppg , 7.9 rpg , 1.5 spg) is a straight STUD, and has the ability to beat you in a variety of ways. Senior PG Tyger Campell (12.7 , 4.7 apg , 1.2 spg) not only has one of the coolest names in sports history, but he's also the heartbeat of this Bruin's team. EVERYTHING runs through him, and he's VITAL to their success. Junior Guard Jaylen Clark (13.0 ppg , 6.2 rpg , 2.6 spg) may be the best overall player in this entire group, and makes plays all over the court. Head Coach Mick Cronin has used solid recruiting to lace this roster with talent, and can use 10+ guy's in their rotation on any give night. All of which can be very productive when placed in the right spots. It's tough to measure the caliber of the Pac 12 as a whole, based off the overall inconsistency throughout the conference. All that aside, I think the Bruin's are ELITE, and will provide matchup problems for ANYONE they face. In my opinion, they're the BEST team in this league.... PERIOD!! Honestly, I don't even feel like it's close and I think they'll show that Saturday evening.

Prediction

There's no doubt that Arizona is one of the better teams in the country, but I DO NOT believe they are on the Top-Tier. I DO believe UCLA is on the Top-Tier, and it wouldn't blow my mind to see them in Houston for the Final Four. The Wildcats defeated the Bruin's, earlier in the season, at home 58-52. The game played much more to the defensive-minded Bruin's strengths, but they just couldn't make the big shots down the stretch in the first meeting. Honestly, I don't think there are going to be very many "Big" shots in this one.... I think UCLA runs away with it. Arizona has shown the ability to be vulnerable on the road this season, and that was against opponents nowhere near the caliber of Mick Coins guy's. UCLA uses this game to springboard into the postseason with a TON of momentum!! Big win at home for the Fightin' John Wooden's!!!!

My Pick: UCLA -5

Final Score: UCLA 80 Arizona 64

Crick's Picks: 3/4/23

Texas A&M -2 vs Alabama 12:00 PM EST
Baylor -8 vs Iowa State 12:00 PM EST
UNC Asheville -7.5 vs USC Upstate 12:00 PM EST Neutral Site
South Alabama +1.5 vs Southern Miss 12:30 PM EST Neutral Site
George Mason +2 @ Richmond 12:30 PM EST
Charlotte +5 vs UAB 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee/Auburn UNDER 131 2:00 PM EST
Marquette -11.5 vs St. John's 2:00 PM EST
Kentucky +4.5 @ Arkansas 2:00 PM EST
Oklahoma +2 vs TCU 3:00 PM EST
North Texas -8.5 vs Western Kentucky 3:00 PM EST
Indiana State +3 vs Bradley 3:30 PM EST Neutral Site
Kansas/Texas OVER 149 4:00 PM EST
Miami FL -6.5 vs Pittsburgh 6:00 PM EST
Samford -2.5 vs Chattanooga 6:00 PM EST Neutral Site
Drake -5 vs Souther Illinois 6:00 PM EST Neutral Site
Duke +3 @ North Carolina 6:30 PM EST
Villanova +2 vs UConn 7:30 PM EST
Oregon State -7 vs California 8:00 PM EST
Creighton -12 @ DePaul 9:00 PM EST
USC -4.5 vs Arizona State 11:00 PM EST

Favorite "Longshot" (+400 or worse) of the Night

Only 10% (or less) of "Unit Bet" Recommended for "Longshots"

For Example: If you normally bet 20$ per play, you shouldn't risk more than 2$ per play on these "Longshots"

Chicago State +520 @ Fresno State 7:00 PM EST

Free ML Parlay (9 Picks)

Michigan State -330
West Virginia -220
Missouri -500
Virginia Tech -500
Oregon -330
Miami FL -300
Texas Tech -275
Clemson -420
Utah State -225

Total Odds Boost = +1056

10.00 to win 105.63

100.00 to win 1,056.00

Good Luck Today!!!!

-Crickett

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The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

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