The MADNESS is FINALLY upon us Folk's!! Each Conference has crowned a Tournament Champion, "Bubble's" have BURST, and the field of 68 is SET!!!! In the coming weeks... We'll see Heart's broken, Prayer's answered, Dream's dashed, and Legend's CEMENTED IN LORE!! There is nothing like "The Big Dance", in terms of RAW EMOTION. All across the country (and the entire planet for that matter), people will fill out brackets with HOPES OF PERFECTION... Only to see those same brackets OBLITERATED by the end of the first weekend. They'll compete in contests with co-workers, friends, family, and even people they've never met before in their lives. You'll find people who couldn't care less about sports the other eleven months out of the year, but they can't help but take part in "The Madness". This is one of my ABSOLUTE FAVORITE times of the year and I can't wait to get this thing rollin!!
In this post, I'll highlight the things that help ME fill out my bracket, and hopefully it helps prepare you to DOMINATE whatever contest you may be entering!! I'll have several other things out for you guy's, between now and Thursday, before the first full slate of games tip-off. Including, a full breakdown of MY BRACKET, as well as, my BEST BETS for the ENTIRE First Round. Hope you all are ready for an EXCITING couple of weeks!! Let's get ready to GROW THOSE ACCOUNTS!!
Crick's Keys to Filling Out Your Bracket
NEVER Underestimate the Power of Research
Sites I Use for My Research:
Some of these Sites are Free, but some do require a monthly or yearly subscription for use. I totally understand that most folk's don't have the extra money to spend on things like this, and that's absolutely FINE. There are ENDLESS AMOUNTS OF FREE CONTENT, all over the internet, and it's available to ANYONE willing to find it.
Here are a few of MY Favorite Sites:
kenpom-plus.com
sports-reference.com
teamrankings.com
Covers.com
Stathead.com
Pay Attention to EXPERIENCE
ALWAYS Be Aware of Injuries to KEY Player's
Pay Attention to WHERE the Games are Played
Know Your Coaches
Upsets are INEVITABLE
The NCAA Tournament has more "David vs Goliath" moments in a single year, than most other sports have in a decade. No other sport provides so many teams with a "Control Your Own Destiny"-type opportunity at a Championship, the way College Basketball does. 68 different teams have the opportunity to win it ALL when this thing starts, and if they don't... They won't have to look any further than their own locker rooms for someone to blame. As mentioned earlier, the parity in College Hoops is as GREAT as it's EVER been. Any team, in the field of 68, has the ability to beat ANY of the other squads in the tourney on any given day. It's practically a MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY that some of the lower seeds WILL PREVAIL in the first round. Picking these "Cinderella's", correctly, might just be what wins that "Office Pool" for ya!! When deciding which underdogs to roll with... Focus on the "Seed-Matchups" that have provided the most "Upsets" historically.....
A #12-seed has defeated a #5-seed 33 TIMES (out of 80 possible games), in the last 20 Tournaments.
In the last 5 Tournaments, #4-seeds have "Swept" the #13-seeds just TWICE.
#14-seeds are 22-126 vs #3-seeds since the Tournament Field expanded in 1985.
A #15-seed has defeated a #2-seed in the first round JUST 10 TIMES... However, it has happened in EACH OF THE LAST TWO TOURNAMENTS!!
A #1-seed has lost to a #16-seed in the first round only ONCE!! Virginia was the TOP OVERALL seed in the 2018 Tourney, when they lost to UMBC. The Cavalier's would go on to win the National Championship the following season.
#6-seeds have "Swept" the #11-seeds in the first round JUST 5 TIMES, since the field expanded in 1985. In Last Year's Tournament, THREE OF THE FOUR #6-seeds lost to #11-seeds in the first round.
All Four #7-seeds have advanced to the second round JUST 3 TIMES since the Tournament expanded. #7-seeds HAVE NOT "Swept" the #10-seeds in the first round since 2007.
Crick's KEY STAT
Hope some of these tips will help ALL OF YOU "Get the Best" of your friends and family in whatever Bracket Games you end up taking part in!! If you don't know of any pools to join... There are a wide array of options online, with "Real Money" contests, as well as, contests that are free to join. If you've never participated in the MADNESS... I STRONGLY RECOMMEND that you give it a try!! If nothing else, I'm sure you'll find it EXCITING and ENJOYABLE!!
Good Luck with Your Brackets!!
Let's Have Some Fun!!!!
-Crickett
In this edition of "Master Class", we're gonna look at Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks, and why the Prediction Markets are the Future of Sports Betting!! Come join us, as we try to provide you with all the tools to STACK YOUR NICKELS TO THE CEILING!! Feel Free to drop any questions you have in the comments!! Hope This Helps My Friends!! Good Luck, Good Gamblin, & Have The Day You Deserve!!
-Crickett
2% WASH ST +10.5 Arizona 51% (ok to 55%)
1% WASH ST YES Arizona 23% (ok to 33%)
Two conflicting trends dictate the Senate outcome in 2026. The map heavily favors Republicans, as the competitive Senate seats up lean heavily Republican. By contrast, the election context heavily favors Democrats, with war, recession, realignment and scandal tipping in their direction. A deeper dive reveals why prediction markets still likely undersell Democratic prospects.
First, the idea that Senate midterms favor the party out of power in the White House is belied by both recent and a century of history of Senate elections. Unlike the House, only a third of Senate seats face election in any midterm, and that map dictates outcomes unless the election context is particularly bad for the incumbent party.
Consider that the highly unpopular Biden didn’t lost any net Senate seats in 2022 and Trump added Senate seats in the Democratic friendly cycle in 2018. Equally, Clinton didn’t lose net Senate seats in 1998 nor did W. in 2002. Even low-approval election cycles like 1966 and 1982 didn’t produce a big swing in the Senate. Indeed, since 1934, the party in power only lost 10% or more of their Senate seats (4+) less than half of the time. Democrats need a flip of exactly that — at least 4 Senate seats — to retake power in the Senate.
Then take a look at the map, and you can see the reason for optimism in GOP circles and some traders in the prediction markets. Only 2 GOP-held seats are in states Trump won by less than double digits, while 2 Democratic-held seats are in states Trump won, and one of those GOP held seats features a long-time incumbent who typically runs double-digits ahead of the GOP norm (Collins in Maine). This is why the GOP entered the year believing odds of losing the Senate were remote, and the prediction markets mostly concurred.
But this ignores the counter-trend: the degree of election dismay with the incumbent party in the White House, and the reasons for that dismay. Presidential job approval has not been a neat proxy for Senate midterms because it depends on the reason for that dissatisfaction in the electorate. Four factors drive Senatorial midterms: war, recession/cost of living, realignment, and scandal. When two of those four factors are not present and don’t dominate, then the incumbent party’s odds of losing 4+ Senate seats drops to less than 20%. By contrast, when two of those four factors are present and do predominate, then the odds of the incumbent party losing 4+ Senate seats rises to 100%. Indeed, the median number of Senate seats lost when some combination of war, recession, realignment and scandal, are present, the White House party loses at least 8 Senate seats.
A few examples: while FDR added Senate seats in 1934 midterms, he lost 9 in 1938 midterms due to the combination of recession and scandal (trying to stack SCOTUS). 1942 and 1946 gave us war and recession to cost Democrats 8 and 12 Senate seats alike. 1950 gave us war again and scandals concerning the war costing Democrats 5 Senate seats. 1958 gave us recession and scandal, costing Ike 15 Senate seats. While JFK added Senate seats in 1962 and Nixon added Senate seats in 1970, only Watergate and stagflation in 1974 or the combination of Iran Contra and vulnerable class of 1980 incumbents cost the incumbent party 4 or more Senate seats until the realignment election of 1994, where evangelicals shifted their down-ballot voting to the GOP en masse. It took war and scandal in 2006 to see the Senate switch 4+ Senate seats again.
That’s the story of 2026: a very GOP favorable Senate map versus a very Democratic friendly election cycle. The GOP enters election season with all four factor present: war, recession/cost of living, realignment, and scandal. The Iran War was already deeply unpopular, and it’s impact on the economy in gas and diesel prices turns Americans sour on their current economic prospects, as wages fall behind, housing and health care feel increasingly unaffordable, labor force participation continues to drop, the the mirage of AI keeps the GDP just above a technical recession. The Epstein scandal remains one of the worst scandals in American political history, and Trump managed to associate himself deeply with the scandal in his handling of it. Then the realignment, as the new Trump 2024 voters joined the Obama-Trump converts of 2016 in abandoning GOP identity, already evident in surveys and primary participation.
A quintet of voter groups appear to be realigning away from the Republican brand — hispanic voters, black voters, industrial area voters, libertarian-leaning voters, and war-skeptical voters alike. This realigning electorate shows up disproportionately in key Senate contests. The war-skeptical voters in states like Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, and Alaska (these are the states W failed to gain in between 2000 and 2004 due to the Iraq War before it even turned unpopular). The hispanic voters in states like Florida and Texas. The African-American voters in states like North Carolina and Georgia. The industrial voters in Ohio and Michigan. The libertarian leaving voters in states like New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Florida.
Thus, many of the states that seem “Safe” on the map are anything but, as their realigning electorates shift back against the Republican brand, with all of them having recent histories in electoral cycles of favoring Democrats or being true swing states. Take states like Florida and Texas where suburban margins began to erode for the GOP in the Trump era but countered that by massive margin shifts in hispanic and black precincts. Primary participation, voter identification, and public opinion surveys show those black and hispanic voters shifting back massively away from the GOP brand, which, given the erosion in some suburban areas and losses with younger generations, makes states Florida and Texas closer to competitive than double-digit leans.
In big swing election cycles, even “safe” Senate seats can suddenly turn razor close, as Bob Dole found out in 1974, barely holding on to his Kansas seat before being the VP nominee two years later. Strong independent candidates in Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana may pose a unique threat to GOP held seats, as the Nebraska race in 2024 showed, with Osborn running 17 points ahead of Harris’ margin in the state. Democrats field the much better candidate in Ohio with a proven track record of out-performing Democratic margins in the state, while the Texas GOP nominee faces abandonment from his own party after they spent over $100M bashing him in the state for a disliked party incumbent. Alaska primary results suggest the Democratic nominee already holds the edge in that ranked choice voting state, while the famed cross-over support for Collins in Maine appears to be fading with newer generations taking over the voter rolls. My current map would be as follows, with surprising closer-than-expected races in Montana, Kansas, Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, South Dakota, South Carolina and Kentucky, and a median map of Democrats holding 53+ Senate seats after the 2026 elections.

If past is prologue, the map won’t save the GOP in 2026, and an ever bigger tsunami may be incoming than anyone in Washington expects.