Crick's Corner: Things to Remember When Filling Out Your Bracket
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The MADNESS is FINALLY upon us Folk's!! Each Conference has crowned a Tournament Champion, "Bubble's" have BURST, and the field of 68 is SET!!!! In the coming weeks... We'll see Heart's broken, Prayer's answered, Dream's dashed, and Legend's CEMENTED IN LORE!! There is nothing like "The Big Dance", in terms of RAW EMOTION. All across the country (and the entire planet for that matter), people will fill out brackets with HOPES OF PERFECTION... Only to see those same brackets OBLITERATED by the end of the first weekend. They'll compete in contests with co-workers, friends, family, and even people they've never met before in their lives. You'll find people who couldn't care less about sports the other eleven months out of the year, but they can't help but take part in "The Madness". This is one of my ABSOLUTE FAVORITE times of the year and I can't wait to get this thing rollin!!
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In this post, I'll highlight the things that help ME fill out my bracket, and hopefully it helps prepare you to DOMINATE whatever contest you may be entering!! I'll have several other things out for you guy's, between now and Thursday, before the first full slate of games tip-off. Including, a full breakdown of MY BRACKET, as well as, my BEST BETS for the ENTIRE First Round. Hope you all are ready for an EXCITING couple of weeks!! Let's get ready to GROW THOSE ACCOUNTS!!
Crick's Keys to Filling Out Your Bracket
NEVER Underestimate the Power of Research
- In the "Information Age" that we live in, KNOWLEDGE IS FREE!! If YOU'RE willing to go and GET IT!! I understand, that most people aren't able to devote hours of their time into studying College Basketball Teams, and that's NOT what I'm asking you to do. However, I'm a FIRM BELIEVER in the "Power of Research", and truly believe it's IMPERATIVE if you want to be SUCCESSFUL betting on Sports. There are SO MANY great sites out there these days.. Some are free to use, while others you'll have to dig in your pocket a little.. ALL of these Sites provide some GREAT ANALYSIS from an "Analytical Perspective". Whether we like it or not, almost EVERYTHING in sports these days is analytics-based. Personally, I LOVE IT because it allows me to view the game from a completely different viewpoint. Analytics helps pinpoint KEY AREAS to pay close attention to. Studying these "Key Areas" will help paint a picture of what the expected outcome of a game may be. I'll give you guy's a list of some of the sites I use for ALL my research and analysis, and I recommend (if you have the time), AT LEAST taking a look to see if they might help in your decision-making process. No, research alone won't win you any bets. However, what it will do is... Help you in making more informative decisions on some of those games you may be "on the fence" about. In predicting the outcome of "Games of Skill", with so many UNKNOWN VARIABLES that you have to factor in, ANY way you can create an edge for yourself is CRUCIAL!! Will simply doing more research make you a successful gambler? OF COURSE NOT!! However, doing some extra "digging" is NEVER a bad thing. If you're going to go and invest your money in a new lawnmower... Don't you normally do some research to find the best possible buy?? ABSOLUTELY!! You should treat gambling on sports with the SAME type of mindset. Why would you want to risk your HARD-EARNED money, on something that you knew NOTHING about?? I PROMISE you, if you're serious about betting on sports, and being PROFITABLE with it... You'll HAVE to put the EXTRA EFFORT in to gain any edge you can. Consistently doing so, WILL make you more SUCCESSFUL with your picks!!
Sites I Use for My Research:
Some of these Sites are Free, but some do require a monthly or yearly subscription for use. I totally understand that most folk's don't have the extra money to spend on things like this, and that's absolutely FINE. There are ENDLESS AMOUNTS OF FREE CONTENT, all over the internet, and it's available to ANYONE willing to find it.
Here are a few of MY Favorite Sites:
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kenpom-plus.com
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sports-reference.com
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teamrankings.com
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Covers.com
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Stathead.com
Pay Attention to EXPERIENCE
- College Basketball can be one of the MOST FRUSTRATING Sports, KNOWN TO MAN, to try and predict. With the evolution of the "Transfer Portal", there has NEVER been MORE PARITY in College Hoops, than there is RIGHT NOW!! Player's who struggle at one program, may go on to BLOSSOM in new environments. EXCELLING under new Coaching Staff's. Although recruiting the high school ranks is, STILL, a VERY CRITICAL part of building a successful program. Plucking the best players from lesser programs, has become a MUST for the top teams in the Land. Most of these transfers, are guy's who have played A LOT of College Basketball, while also dealing with their fair share of adversity. Player's like this can be HUGE, when it comes to making a deep run in March. More times than not, the teams that make it to the "Final 4" have a strong mix of TALENT and EXPERIENCE. There are teams out there, LOADED with young STUDS who have more ability than 90% of teams they'll face.... BUT....... They've never felt the PRESSURES of an NCAA Tournament Game. Some will RISE to the occasion, while some will make mistakes they've NEVER made before in their lives. When deciding which teams I think will make deep runs, INSTEAD of "Gambling" MY fate on a bunch of player's one year removed from High School... I focus on the teams that are veteran-laden, with guy's that have dealt with the pressure's of these spots before. Building these types of teams through the "Transfer Portal" seems to be the new norm in College Athletics. If there is a spot in your Bracket where you're really not sure which way to lean... Your BEST bet, is to go with the team with the most OVERALL Experience. The simple way to figure this out is... Look at the player's playing the most minutes for each team. When you establish that, check each of those players "Career" stats . It won't be too hard to figure out which team has more "Overall On-Court Experience". Simply based on the overall amount of games played-in, by EACH of those players. Like I said, this is a good tool for those games you're just not sure which way to go.
ALWAYS Be Aware of Injuries to KEY Player's
- We're all aware it requires a "Team" effort to be successful in sports, especially at the highest levels. Championship Teams look like a well-oiled machine when they're clicking on all cylinders. Each player knows THEIR role, and plays THEIR part to perfection. Chemistry like this, usually isn't developed overnight, but CAN be torn down in a moment with the loss of a key player. Player's spend MONTHS (and sometimes years) learning how to "play off" their teammate's strengths and weaknesses. Anytime a player in the Top 5 on his team in "Minutes Played" goes down with an injury, that team usually sees a SIGNIFICANT DROP in efficiency on both ends of the court. A lot of times, it will take 2 or 3 players to replicate the productivity of the player who was injured, and that just doesn't work out. There are only so many mouths that can be fed, and an allotted amount of time to do it in. When it takes THREE guy's to replace the production of ONE, and you're only allowed FIVE players on the court at a time, it's going to provide less opportunities for other teammates. Opportunities those same teammates have become accustom to having. This, oftentimes, leads to less overall production as a team. Not to mention, FRUSTRATIONS that these Squads, most likely, aren't used to dealing with. Before making your picks, be AWARE of ANY injuries that may have occurred in Conference Tournaments. This could require a team to play a completely different style than they've played for the majority of the year. NO team wants to change the things that have made them successful all season long, but injuries sometimes leave them no choice. Teams in these situations, traditionally, don't have a very high success-rate in "The Dance".
Pay Attention to WHERE the Games are Played
- Honestly, a major factor in SUCCESS in the NCAA Tournament is the "Luck of the Draw". A team's path to the Final Four can make all the difference, in either "Cutting Down the Nets", or BOWING OUT before the second weekend even arrives. Some teams will get to play virtual "Home" games in the first two rounds, while others will travel over 1000 miles for the opening weekend. When focusing on "Upset" Picks... Look for lower-seeded teams, who's campus is located within a few hours of the location of their First Round games. This usually means their fanbases will travel well, and COULD provide the same type of atmosphere those teams are accustom to playing in at their Home arena's. Especially pay attention to this when... Those team's opponents have had to travel a significant distance for the game. It's not easy to win on the road in College Basketball, so if one team's fanbase can create that "Home-Like" atmosphere for their squad, it can be a HUGE ADVANTAGE for those teams.
Know Your Coaches
- In Sports, a Coach's Legacy is often determined based on their "Post-Season" Success (or Failure). For whatever reason, Some Coach's have had A LOT of success in the regular-season... Only to come up short in the BIGGEST SPOTS with EVERYTHING on the line. Sometimes, this is simply due to some "Tough Luck"... but other times, it seems SOME of these Coach's "Schemes" simply aren't built for success in this style of post-season play. Certain Conferences may play a particular "Style" of Basketball, and a Coach will often design his scheme to be successful against teams with those types of play-styles. That's, obviously, CRUCIAL because your success in Conference-play will determine if you even make the tournament at all. However, when you get to the post-season, you're matched up against teams you RARELY see, who could have very contrasting play-styles to what your team normally faces. Be AWARE of Coach's who have struggled in tournament-play in the past. That's not to say they CAN"T be successful in these spots... but UNTIL they prove us otherwise, we have no reason to believe anything different.
Upsets are INEVITABLE
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The NCAA Tournament has more "David vs Goliath" moments in a single year, than most other sports have in a decade. No other sport provides so many teams with a "Control Your Own Destiny"-type opportunity at a Championship, the way College Basketball does. 68 different teams have the opportunity to win it ALL when this thing starts, and if they don't... They won't have to look any further than their own locker rooms for someone to blame. As mentioned earlier, the parity in College Hoops is as GREAT as it's EVER been. Any team, in the field of 68, has the ability to beat ANY of the other squads in the tourney on any given day. It's practically a MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY that some of the lower seeds WILL PREVAIL in the first round. Picking these "Cinderella's", correctly, might just be what wins that "Office Pool" for ya!! When deciding which underdogs to roll with... Focus on the "Seed-Matchups" that have provided the most "Upsets" historically.....
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A #12-seed has defeated a #5-seed 33 TIMES (out of 80 possible games), in the last 20 Tournaments.
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In the last 5 Tournaments, #4-seeds have "Swept" the #13-seeds just TWICE.
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#14-seeds are 22-126 vs #3-seeds since the Tournament Field expanded in 1985.
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A #15-seed has defeated a #2-seed in the first round JUST 10 TIMES... However, it has happened in EACH OF THE LAST TWO TOURNAMENTS!!
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A #1-seed has lost to a #16-seed in the first round only ONCE!! Virginia was the TOP OVERALL seed in the 2018 Tourney, when they lost to UMBC. The Cavalier's would go on to win the National Championship the following season.
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#6-seeds have "Swept" the #11-seeds in the first round JUST 5 TIMES, since the field expanded in 1985. In Last Year's Tournament, THREE OF THE FOUR #6-seeds lost to #11-seeds in the first round.
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All Four #7-seeds have advanced to the second round JUST 3 TIMES since the Tournament expanded. #7-seeds HAVE NOT "Swept" the #10-seeds in the first round since 2007.
Crick's KEY STAT
- The Past FIVE (5) National Champion's have been ranked in the TOP 22, in BOTH, "Adjusted Offensive Efficiency" and "Adjusted Defensive Efficiency".
Hope some of these tips will help ALL OF YOU "Get the Best" of your friends and family in whatever Bracket Games you end up taking part in!! If you don't know of any pools to join... There are a wide array of options online, with "Real Money" contests, as well as, contests that are free to join. If you've never participated in the MADNESS... I STRONGLY RECOMMEND that you give it a try!! If nothing else, I'm sure you'll find it EXCITING and ENJOYABLE!!
Good Luck with Your Brackets!!
Let's Have Some Fun!!!!
-Crickett