2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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March 17, 2023
March Madness Report: Friday, March 17, 2023
Recap: Thursday's games started with a bang: Furman upset Virginia in a classic finish, while Maryland-West Virginia & Charleston-San Diego State went to the wire, as did much of Utah St-Missouri. Princeton then pulled another 15-seed shocker over tourney favorite Arizona before Penn State capped off the day's upsets in the late game. Favorites went 8-8 against the spread, the higher seed team won 12 out of 16 matchups, but 2 of those were Vegas underdog winners, as 6 Vegas dogs won outright.
Friday: Public favors the dogs today too, with only the following public favorites: Memphis, Kentucky, Creighton, and Gonzaga. Lopsided public totals include Unders in Vermont-Marquette, FAU-Memphis, Drake-Miami, Iona-Connecticut, Pitt-Iowa St., Providence-Kentucky, UCSB-Baylor, and ASU-TCU. Public likes the Over in VCU-St Marys & Pitt-Iowa St. Smart/Sharp $ bets show up on FAU, Indiana, St. Marys, Iowa St., Xavier, and TCU. Biggest Sharp/Square divide of the day is FAU-Memphis and VCU-St. Marys. Games where KenPom predicts a score 2 or more points different than Vegas includes favoring these on the odds: Grand Canyon, St. Mary's, ASU & Providence.
Enjoy the Madness!
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
