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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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March 18, 2023
March Madness Report: Fun Friday!
Cinderella found her shoe. A big name coach set a dubious record. Torn tickets littered the Sportsbooks' floors and busted brackets swept the office pools. A fun Friday of pure Madness on St. Patty's Day!
Watch: If you want a game with posterized dunks, wild swings, bomb-away threes, falling down shots, and a last-second finish, take in TCU-Arizona State. Live chat cashed on a live bet on the game too!
Recap: Only the 2nd 16-seed to ever win a 1st round game, as little Fairleigh Dickinson took down mighty Purdue, with the Boilermakers head coach now setting a new record: losing to a 13, 15 and 16 seed in the tourney, and doing it in back-to-back-to-back tourneys! Friday favorites went 10-6 against the line, and 13-3 straight up, as the public took a beating like an overdue debtor from Tony with the bat. Sportsbooks cleaned up, as the public's favorite dogs -- VCU, Drake, and Kent St. lost against the # -- and the public's favorite favorites (Memphis & Gonzaga) failed to cover or lost outright. Through the 1st round, 25 higher seeds prevailed, and 23 Vegas favorites won outright. Including the First Four, favorites are 20-16 against the number, with 11 dogs winning outright, a little low by historic metrics, but close to the norm. A 10, 11, 13, 15 and 16 seed all still made it to the 2nd round, as did two 9 seeds.
Preview: At least 2 low seeds will make the Sweet-16, as they play each other in the 2nd round. Public betting heaviest on Auburn, Princeton & Duke. Sharp $ on Furman & under in the Duke-Tennessee matchup. By historic metrics for seeds and Vegas lines, the spreads in the Houston & Kansas games are very low, while the rest are in accord with the norm. Friday's 8 games features 6 games with 1 or 2 seeds (or their upset replacement). While Penn State could give a double-digit seed a Sweet 16 birth with a win, the Princeton-Missouri matchup guarantees a 7 seed or lower will make the Sweet 16. The rest of the Cinderellas wait for Sunday.
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Betting Psychology and Risk Management
This post is partially motivated by the incoming surge in official picks we are going to have as well as the dismay here some have experienced with the downturn we've had over the past few weeks. Risk-based moneymaking is not an easy pursuit and the vast majority of people who try their hand at it fail. It is important that you arm yourselves with as may tools as possible so that you will be in the profitable minority. Most people find it difficult enough to look at their investment portfolios during a relatively mild downturn, and that's with professional hedge fund managers doing insulating them from the very real challenges of risking our money and making a profit from it. Anyone who is active here is choosing to take that risk into their own hands. There are big rewards for this but also very big risks. This post is about preventing you from being taken out by those risk.
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