2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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April 16, 2023
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Play offs
La Lakers (43-39) 7th in the West Versus Memphis Grizzlies (51-31) 2nd in the West.
Lakers are 4 point dog. Vegas has the total at 228. LA’s James,foot;Davis, foot; Schroder, Achilles are all game time decisions. Memphis’ Adams, Knee; LaRavia,calf; are out.
Vegas action shows 73 % lean towards the Grizzlies and 64% favor the under.
Miami Heat (44-38)8th in the East Versus Milwaukee Bucks ( 58-24)1st in the East.
The Heat is a 9.5 point dog and Vegas has the total at 220. Heat’s Lowry, knee;Vincent,Hip are game time decisions. Jovic, back is out. No injuries for the Bucks.
Vegas action shows 77% lean toward the Bucks and 52% favor the over.
LA Clippers (44-38) 5th in the West Verss Phoenix Suns (45-37) 4th in the West.
Clippers are a 7.5 point dog. Vegas has the total at 225.5
Clippers’ George,knee, is out. Suns Payne,back,is a game time decision.
Vegas action shows 57% lean toward the Suns and the over/under is a pick em.
Minnesota Timberwolves (424-40) 8th in the West versus Denver Nuggets(53-29) 1st in the West. The Wolves are an 8 point dog with a total 224.5 Minnesota’s Gobert, back, Nowell,knee,are game time decisions. Reid, wrist,is out. McDaniels, hand, is out
Vegas action shows 78% lean towards Nuggets and 58% favor the over.
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
