Barnes Betting Report: Political Betting, April 2023

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Politics • Sports • Investing & Finance

April 20, 2023

Barnes Betting Report: Politics, April 2023

RFK trades at between 2% and 3% to win the Democratic nomination on most betting markets, with Biden around 55%. DeSantis currently trades at 20% to 25% to win the Republican nomination, with Trump now around 60%. Trump trades around 30% to win the general election in 2024, and Biden around 40%. DeSantis now dropped to mid-teens around 15% to win the general election, while Robert Kennedy trades around 1% for the general election.

In most markets for betting politics, you can trade in and out of your position. The key in evaluating these odds is not to compare it to what you think the odds should be, but rather whether you think these odds will change between now and the primaries ten-months from now.

For subscribers, see my picks and deep dive below.

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svea123@svea123

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Edit:
Turns out 1st X Innings Moneyline is different from -0.5 on the runline

#####

MLB 1st X Innings: -0.5 Runlines vs Moneylines

Similar to betting Pk, Double Chance, and Asian Handicap on soccer and seeing different odds for the same bet within the same sportsbook, I think it's a similar story for MLB 1st X innings lines. For example, look at this Bookmarker.eu listing for 1st 5: Mets -0.5 versus the Mets moneyline. Aren't the scenarios equivalent? Yet one has much better odds.

I see it on multiple books when a team has -0.5 on the spread/runline.

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