2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 23, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Sunday April 23
Play offs
Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31) 4th in the East versus NY Knicks (45-35) 5th in the East.
Knicks are 2.5 point favorite and Vegas has the total at 205.
Cav’s Windler,foot, is out. Knicks Grimes,shoulder, is a game time decision
Vegas action shows 70% lean toward the Knicks. 51% favor the under.
Knicks lead the series 2-1
Sacramento Kings (48-34) 3rd in the West versus GS Warriors (44-38) 6th in the West.
GS is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 237.5
Kings Dellavedova, finger, is out. Warriors’ Iguodola, wrist, is out; Payton, illness is game time decision; Poole, ankle, is a game time decision.
Vegas action shows 61% lean toward the Kings and 73% favor the under
Kings lead the series 2-1
Boston Celtics (57-25) 2nd in the East versus ATL Hawks (41-41)7th in the East.
Boston is a 6.5 point favorite. Vegas has the total at 231.5
Bostons’ Gallinari,knee, is out; Smart,back, is a game time decision.
Vegas action shows 77% lean towards Boston and 59% favor the under.
Celtics lead the series 2-1
Denver Nuggets (53-29)1st in the West versus Min Timberwolves (42-40)8th in the West.
Denver is a 4 point favorite. Vegas has the total at 224.
The Wolves’ Nowell,knee, is a game time decision; Reid, wrist, is out. McDaniels’, hand, is out; Minott, ankle, is a game time decision.
Vegas action shows 93% lean toward Denver and 57% favor the under.
Denver leads the series 3-0
Mike’s pick of the day:
NBA =Denver Nuggets -4
MLB= Rockies-Phillies over 8.5 NY Mets $ML
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
