2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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April 24, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Monday April 24
Play offs
Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) 1st in the East versus Miami Heat (44-38) 8th in the East.
Miami Heat are an 8 point dog with a total of 218.
Bucks’ Matthews,calf, is out; The Heat’s Butler,lower back, is a game time decision. Adebayo,hamstring, is a game time decision. Jovic, back, is a game time decision; Herro, hand, is out.
Vegas action shows 75% lean toward the bucks and 52% favor the under.
Heat leads the series 2-1
Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)2nd in the West versus LA Lakers (43-39)7th in the West.
Lakers are a 4.5 point favorite. Vegas has the total at 222.5
Grizzlies Adams, knee, is out; LaRavia, calf, is out. Lakers’ James, foot, is a game time decision; Davis, foot, is a game time decision; Schroder,foot, is game time decision.
Vegas action shows 51% lean toward the lakers and 54% favor the under.
Lakers lead the series 2-1
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
