2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Wednesday April 26
Play offs
NY Knicks (47-35 )5th in the East versus Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31) 4th in the East
Cleveland a 5.5 point favorite.Vegas has the total at 205
Knicks Grimes,shoulder, is a game time decision; Sims, shoulder,is out Cav’s Windler,foot, is out. Knicks lead series 3-1
Vegas action shows 63% lean toward Knicks and 56% favor the over.
LA Lakers (43-39) 7th in the West versus Memphis Grizzlies ( 51-31) 2nd in the West.
Grizzlies is a 4 point favorite with a total of 222.
Lakers James’, foot, is a game time decision; Davis, foot, is a game time decision;Schroder,foot, also a game time decision. Grizzlies’ Adams, knee, is out; LaRavia, calf, is out.
Lakers lead 3-1
Vegas action shows 65% lean toward Memphis and 55% favor the over.
Miami Heat (44-38)8th in theEast versus Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) 1st in the East.
Bucks are 12.5 point favorite. Vegas has total of 220.5
Heat’s Adebayo, hamstring, is a game time decision; Herro,hand, is out;Antetokounmpo,back, is a game time decision.
Vegas action shows 56% lean toward the Bucks and 73% favor the over
Heat lead the series 3-1
GS Warriors (44-38) 6th in the West versus Sacramento Kings (48-34)3rd in the West.
GS is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 234.5
Warriors’ Iguodola,wrist, is out. Kings’ Dellavedova,finger, is out; Fox,finger, is a game time decision.
Series is tied 2-2
Vegas action shows 62% lean toward the warriors and 52% favor the over.
Mike's Pick of the day:
NBA GS -1.5 spread
MLB ATL Braves $line
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.